Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KAPX 220700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Weak moisture-starved cool front has pushed southeast of our CWA
early this morning. Area of mid cloud associated with the front has
followed suite...leaving mainly clear skies across our entire CWA.
Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column are building back
into the Wrn Great Lakes region behind this front...reinforcing our
rather persistently hostile environment toward any chance of precip
or even low clouds.

High pressure center will build south out of Ontario into Michigan
today and tonight...with virtually no moisture at any level to
produce much in the way of cloud cover. Expect a sunny day across
the Northwoods. Temps will not be quite as warm as yesterday thanks
to weak low level CAA behind the front. Afternoon highs will peak
mainly in the lower 70s...cooler near the lakeshores. Clear skies
and light/calm winds tonight will allow temps to cool into the upper
30s to mid 40s. At this not expect any frost development
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

...Warm temperatures over the next several days...

Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the region under mostly
clear skies Monday into Monday night. It will be very warm Monday as
well with highs pushing well into the 70s to the lower 80s. Humidity
levels will remain rather low though...and southerly winds will
become a bit gusty...leading to the continuance of the fire weather
watch for Monday. The ridge breaks down Tuesday allowing for a large
scale pattern change to take shape across the western Great Lakes.
This will feature higher humidity levels and decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms as pieces of energy eject out of
a long wave trough centered across the western states. There still
could be some strong to severe storms Thursday depending upon how
much heating we can generate as it appears that there will be a
surface warm front lurking somewhere in the vicinity. Any rainfall
will be welcomed as we could definitely use the moisture.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for late May.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

...Continuing VFR flight conditions...

Weak/moisture starved front continues to sag down through northern
lower Michigan bringing along a narrow ribbon of mid cloud cover
through the region. Still a few pockets of precip returns on KAPX
radar over NE lower Michigan with said mid cloud deck, but
doubtful there is much getting to the ground giving the dry lower
levels, other than maybe a few sprinkles.

Batch of mid cloud will slip through the region overnight with
the front, followed by surface high pressure rebuilding across
the Great Lakes later through Sunday. There is some lower cloud
cover upstream behind the front across southern Ontario. But
doubtful that any of that makes it into northern Michigan. So,
clearing skies anticipated overnight and mainly clear skies for

Light winds tonight, increasing to 10 knots or less Sunday.
Mainly from the north although lake breezes will again locally
turn winds more onshore at the terminal sites.


Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday night as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Monday night as well.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-033>036.



LONG TERM...Sullivan
MARINE...MLR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.