Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 252010
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT. THERE STILL HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND EVEN A COUPLE OF STRIKES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVER THE LAST HOUR. CONTINUED COMPLEX SETUP FOR
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION. THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS EXTREMELY TIGHT ACROSS
MICHIGAN SO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION (HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST) AS
WELL AS THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER)
REMAIN IN QUESTION.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FILL BACK IN AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW PIROUETTING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND COMBINING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER INDICATE THAT IT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH OR FOR ALL SNOW SCENARIO AND
HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST
UP THAT WAY (HOPE THAT HOLDS IT). ELEVATED WARM LAYER (SURFACE TO
ABOUT 700 MB) ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ERODES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STRIP OUT BEFORE IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DUE TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 6 TO 6.5 C/KM) ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: DOWNSTREAM NORTH
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CANADA BLOCKING WILL REMAIN DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IN THE PROCESS OF
TANKING...AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DO SO PER PERUSAL OF NEARLY ALL
GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF THIS BLOCK ENSURES A SEASONABLY COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER
AND HELPS SUPPRESS FUTURE SOUTHERN STREAM RAIN-MAKERS AS THEY PIVOT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. SO...ALL-IN-ALL...A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS MIDWEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING LINGERING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS EARLY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: PRIMARY FORCING TIED TO CURRENT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM IS
LARGELY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. TOP-DOWN DRYING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY THE
LAST TO CLEAR...PROBABLY TAKING TO LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON TO DO SO. MOISTURE LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERHEAD SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND
CLEAR SKIES SETS THE STAGE FOR A RATHER COLD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON A SLOW INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY PIVOTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. AS
MENTIONED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING HELPS LOCK IN
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...FORCING
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR MORE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY (AT LEAST PER NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS). PER PATTERN
RECOGNITION...REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS IDEA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
STRENGTH OF THAT -NAO SIGNATURE. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT...CARRYING SOME VERY LOW POP SHOWER MENTION FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS WOULDN`T BE A BAD IDEA...ALTHOUGH REALLY STARTING TO
FEEL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE.

MBL

...EXTENDED...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY LINGER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. SAID HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS
INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIGS WILL BE AS LOW AS
LIFR FAR NORTH AND LIKELY IFR ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
THE MOMENT WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

TJL

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES WILL IMPACT ALL MARINE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL/MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN



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