Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 242335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO VFR/IFR TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

BAND OF -RA LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH TVC/MBL WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS 1ST THIS
EVENING...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PLN/APN OVERNIGHT.
THOSE SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES...WHILE TVC/MBL STAY
LARGELY MVFR. PLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THRU MONDAY...WHILE OTHER
SITES IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

SE TO SSW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...STRONGEST MONDAY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT). LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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