000
FXUS63 KAPX 160401
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH EXITED EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLIER...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS PATTERN WILL END ANY LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME SUN BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WILL ARRIVE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PUSHES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

FLURRIES AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FADE. SOME RESIDUAL LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE MI LINGER NEAR GRAYLING...OTHERWISE NW
LOWER MI IS CLEAR OUTSIDE OF CIRRUS. A LARGER CLUSTER OF STRATOCU
FROM LAKE HURON IS FOUND NEAR ROGERS/APN. A FEW SUPERIOR STREAMERS
ARE ALSO REACHING WESTERN/CENTRAL CHIPPEWA...WITH SAULT CANADA
REPORTING A FLURRY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WILL BUMP UP CLOUD COVER
IN BOTH NE LOWER AND NW CHIP FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES. TEMPS ARE LARGELY IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIMES OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND HAVE HAD TO STRETCH THEM OUT LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...OUTSIDE OF THOSE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CLOUD COVER IS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS HEATING (SO TO SPEAK) IS LOST. WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AS THE EVENING PROCEEDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

OVERVIEW: BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
POCKET OF VERY COLD (DARE I SAY ARCTIC) AIR DIPPING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION. BKN STCU
AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT/DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE TODAY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AS -18C TO
-24C H8 AIR SINKS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES OUT OF ONTARIO. BUT...
INCOMING AIRMASS IS ALSO VERY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO NRN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING CLOSE TO
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON OFF THE OPEN WATERS (VISIBLE IMAGERY TODAY
CLEARLY SHOWS A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN LAKE ICE ON LAKES MICHIGAN
AND HURON). BUT LOSS OF HEATING AND INCOMING VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY TAKE IT/S TOLL ON NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
OUT THERE NOW. SO...CLEARING TREND TONIGHT SEEMS GOOD AT THIS
POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WE DO MAINTAIN A BIT OF A
P-GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. BUT IT WILL
GET FAIRLY COLD JUST BY VIRTUE OF COLD ADVECTION ON IT/S OWN. HAVE
LOWS LARGELY RANGING FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WITH
A COUPLE SPOTS DIPPING TO COLDER THAN -10F. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKING TO
BE SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO BRING RAIN OR SNOW LATER TUE INTO WED...

ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A COUPLE OF BOUTS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF
THE LIKELY STORM SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED DEEP SNOW PACK YIELDING
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
20 BELOW ZERO INLAND (MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75) TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
RESULTING A SOMEWHAT MILDER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME WARM
ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND
30 SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS IS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BECOME
INTERESTING. ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GEMS UP A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOST LIKELY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR (SEASONAL CHANGE)
AND HOW FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE IT IS (STILL A FEW DAYS). MODEL
TRENDS HAVE NOW SETTLED INTO A GENERAL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
MACKINAC TRACK. THIS PRESENTS A MYRIAD OF POSSIBILITIES INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND DRY SLOT ISSUES. WILL NOT VARY FROM MIDNIGHT
SHIFT SCENARIO WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY (LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY)...THOUGH AT SOME POINT SLEET OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN MAY
NEED TO BE INTRODUCED. MUCH MILDER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. HIGHS THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH...THOUGH
DEFINITELY MILDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. HIGH PRESSURE
DRYING THE REGION OUT ON THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT SATURDAY (THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY). HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...VFR SUNDAY.

COLD BUT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO MI...AHEAD OF LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MVFR LAKE CLOUDS LINGER
NEAR APN...THESE WILL LIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOLIDLY VFR THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

WINDS GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH A NW TO N BREEZE THRU
THE FORECAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ