Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170653
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
253 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers at times today through tonight. Mainly light snow
  accumulation combined with brisk winds and low visibilities
  may result in pockets of hazardous travel.

- Snow showers later Monday through Tuesday night with light
  accumulations.

- Snow showers continue mid week with breezy conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure continues
to pinwheel across the eastern half of Canada with attendant
troughing sagging across the Upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Attendant ~992 mb surface low currently situated near the
Quebec/Ontario border will continue to meander toward the eastern
seaboard through the near-term forecast period. Focus today through
tonight revolves around additional wave(s) of energy pivoting south
across northern Michigan...providing support for an uptick in snow
coverage and intensity at times.

Forecast Details:

Snow showers today through tonight: Most noteworthy snow activity
earlier tonight lied across parts of eastern upper Michigan where
vsbys bounced around at ERY/CIU/ANJ/CYAM from 1/2sm to 4sm for much
of the night. This has waned in coverage and intensity over the last
couple of hours. Not a ton to note across northern lower with more
isolated/cellular activity dotting the map in the midst of broad
northwesterly flow. This flow veers more north-northwest for the
night ahead. Deeper moisture continues to slowly pivot south across
the U.P. this morning...not really making much headway south of the
bridge until this afternoon -- continuing into tonight.

Combination of a sufficient over-water thermal gradient and synoptic
forcing/moisture from aforementioned energy dropping south across
the forecast area will be today through this evening over eastern
upper, and this afternoon through tonight across northwest lower.
These time periods are expected to feature the most numerous snow
showers -- especially in the typical northwest flow snow belts. Some
uncertainties with regard to snow amounts continue, however, given
diurnal effects from a mid-March sun angle and occasional gustiness
both aiding to lower SLRs. Latest trends continue to support snow
amounts today through tonight generally ranging from 1.5-3.5" across
northwest lower with potential for locally higher amounts favored
along/near the US-131 corridor from Kalkaska to Boyne Falls. Similar
accumulations anticipated across western Chippewa County with
locally higher totals favored over MQT`s forecast area.

Some pockets of hazardous travel may materialize over the next 24
hours given falling/blowing snow and reduced visibility, which may
linger into the Monday morning commute time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Trough axis will generally be to the east of northern Michigan by
the midday hours Monday and thus, besides a few very light lake
effect snow showers (mainly early), a lax in precipitation is
likely, if only for a short while.

By later Monday into Tuesday, a short wave trough embedded within
northwest flow aloft will swing through northern Michigan. This
coupled with a jet streak to the west/southwest will trigger snow
showers across the area. Troughing will be on its heels, somewhat
vigorous at that, somewhere in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time
frame with more lake effect snow showers.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy aloft will be mainly to the east of the area Monday and thus
much of the lake effect snow shower potential will cease or lighten
to inconsequential flurries. Expect relatively cool temperatures
with occasional breezes as well on Monday.

Quick moving energy aloft on Tuesday expected to trigger snow
showers across northern Michigan. Light accumulations are expected
with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. More vigorous energy aloft
dives to the southeast approaching the Great Lakes Tuesday night
into Wednesday with additional snow showers expected. Read long term
for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Relatively vigorous northern stream piece of energy will continue/
dive southeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday with northwest flow
in its wake. Consequently, lake effect snow showers are expected
Wednesday into early Thursday for northwest snow belts mainly. Looks
breezy to brisk and cold on Wednesday, temperatures in the 20s, as
the trough/subsequent low pressure system (in Canada) moves
through/off to the east. This could lead to periods of blowing snow
on Wednesday with generally minor accumulations anticipated at this
time, but we`ll fine tune those details in the coming days.

Another potential quick hit of precip possible late this upcoming
week. Newer ECM and CMC move precipitate over the region whereas the
previous runs had the event largely missing the region to the south;
GFS says quick hitting snow likely. Ensembles hint at the potential
for light precipitation, with varying degrees of confidence. Will
lean towards the potential for light snow showers/continuing light
lake effect, but more or less low confidence on exactly where the
precip shield will end up. High temperatures will rise from the mid
20s to low 30s on Thursday to the low to mid 30s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Deep low pressure will track eastward thru Ontario overnight
and into Quebec on Sunday. Colder air will continue to sweep
into Northern Michigan in the wake of the associated cold front
over the next 24 hours. Mainly light lake-enhanced snow showers
will continue to impact much of Northern Michigan...targeting
our traditional snowbelt areas for the most persistent snow
shower activity. Prevailing conditions will be low VFR/MVFR
thru Sunday night...possibly dropping to IFR within some of the
heavier snow showers. Surface winds will remain from the NW at
15 to 25 kts with some higher gusts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Pretty widespread SCA winds/waves anticipated over northern MI`s
nearshore waters today through tonight. Northwest winds gradually
begin to relax on Monday before backing more southwesterly Monday
night and falling below advisory criteria area-wide.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MJG


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