000
FXUS63 KAPX 241731
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON OVERHEAD/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS WITH
LIGHT RETURNS. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY MOVING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF ANY DRIZZLE /ALTHOUGH
WHERE IT OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FREEZE ON COLD
SURFACES/. NICE FLARE UP OF SHSN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER /AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN UPDATED
FORECAST/...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE...WITH FLURRIES CAPTURING THE IDEA FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM EST SAT HAN 24 2015

REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SOME SNOW AS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT RETURNS BEHIND
IT. WILL CONTINUE FASTS MENTION THROUGH NOON..AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. MARKED COOLING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS
IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL END THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND FASTS MENTION.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER O THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SAT HAN 24 2015

WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS EXITED EAST OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL TO OUR NW...
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THRU WISCONSIN INTO ERN IOWA.
WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN PER
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES. SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MINNESOTA ATTM...AND IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL.

MOISTURE WITH BOTH BOUNDARIES IS RATHER LIMITED PER LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS. HOWEVER... DEEP/BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THRU TODAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND ANY SNOWFALL REMAINING LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR (WELL UNDER
AN INCH).

SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU OUR CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CAA
SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT ONLY EXPECT SOME FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON SHORELINES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY N/NE AND LOW
LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. WITH ONGOING CAA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
AND KEEP MOISTURE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH SO HAVE PULLED THE PLUG ON
POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES
OF SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING CLIPPER SYSTEMS THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
WEAKENING BUT MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA (ADDED CHANCE POPS). HIGHS IN
THE COLDER MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

INCREASING RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER WILL THEN BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BRINGING FRIGID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY...THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER
20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.

RESTRICTIONS: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  A FEW LIGHT SHSN OR A
LITTLE DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT APN...WHERE LLEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON
THREATENS TO KEEP MVFR STRATUS AND A FEW SHSN AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS LLEVEL STRATUS MAY VERY WELL PERSIST AT APN THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY 10G15KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KTS.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
10KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ARNOTT