000
FXUS63 KAPX 241045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Another day of record-setting warmth...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remain over the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley
early this morning...with the pronounced upper level ridge axis
aligned within this same area. Extended period of unseasonably warm
temps and dry conditions continue across this entire region. Closest
convection remains well upstream along and just behind a persistent
inverted trough extending from Texas thru the Central Plains to near
the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Dwpts depressions are shrinking...
resulting in the development of some patchy fog across our CWA early
this morning.

For today...strong subsidence...dry air thru the column and a rather
strong mid level cap will keep any chances of precip at bay today
and tonight. Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook agrees with this...
keeping general thunder west of our CWA closer to the inverted
trough.

Expect yet another hot lake September day....with several locations
again matching or breaking max temp records today. Afternoon highs
will range from the upper 80s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower
90s for most of Northern Lower Michigan. Expect another muggy night
as temps drop into the low to mid 60s.

Records for today:
    Record (Year)
GLR   86 (2007)
TVC   89 (2007)
APN   89 (2007)
ANJ   88 (1892)
HTL   86 (2007)
PLN   87 (2007)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Daily record high temperatures likely through Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Little change in the large pattern is anticipated
through Monday as upper troughing remains anchored across the
Intermountain West with ridging continuing to prevail over the
eastern two thirds of the country. However, large upper level closed
high pressure overhead late this weekend gradually shifts off to the
east throughout the day Monday...and more so Tuesday, allowing for
energy from the western trough to eject toward the Great Lakes. This
energy is expected to ultimately phase with another shortwave
sliding across southern Canada Tuesday afternoon, bringing
substantial height falls into the Great Lakes region by midweek.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Remaining warm and somewhat
humid both Monday and Tuesday with several high temperatures records
expected to be broken once again. Tuesday would be the sixth
consecutive day of record highs in an impressive stretch of late
season warm weather that has consistently featured highs 20-30
degrees above normal.

Monday and Tuesday current records:

       Monday / Tuesday
ANJ: 83(1908) / 84(1908)
GLR: 76(1958) / 80(1999)
HTL: 91(1920) / 89(1920)
TVC: 89(1908) / 88(1908)
APN: 85(1935) / 88(1920)
PLN: 80(2007) / 83(1973)

An increasing shower/storm threat arrives midweek as an approaching
cold front is set to slide across northern Michigan. As was alluded
to by the prior shift, question marks revolve around exact timing of
the front, increased cloud cover, and the period of greatest
potential for any precip. Current trends continue to suggest the
aforementioned cold front doesn`t arrive to northern Michigan until
Tuesday evening at the earliest; however, developing convection
across Wisconsin and the western U.P. may reach eastern upper and
far northwest Lower in isolated fashion by late Tuesday afternoon.
At the very least, increased cloud cover seems likely west of US-
131.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Late Tuesday`s cold front mentioned above continues to progress
eastward across northern Michigan right through Wednesday morning.
Not impressed with recent trends regarding shower coverage Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning as northern Michigan lies in poor
location relative to the upper level jet, the best support remains
focused across southern Ontario and deep layer moisture axis
ahead of the front diminishes with time. The main story will
certainly revolve around much cooler temperatures prevailing
Wednesday right on through the weekend with the coolest days
expected to be Friday- Saturday as a reinforcing shot of cool air
aloft results in high temperatures struggling to reach the mid-
upper 50s. The combination of mid level waves passing through the
northern tier of the CONUS and lake processes beginning to ramp up
locally yields the possibility of showery periods late this week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

VFR conditions will continue at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF
sites today and tonight as strong high pressure and dry remain the
rule. Winds under 10 kts will lend to some lake breeze development
by this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Monday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Monday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR