Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180145
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
945 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow and gusty winds tonight into early Monday.
  Low visibilities and slick roads will lead to pockets of
  hazardous travel through the Monday morning commute.

- Light snow returns Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a
  lengthy period of colder-than-normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Upper level trough axis and surface reflection are moving thru
Upper Michigan late this evening. Area of enhanced snowfall is
evident on latest KMQT 88D base ref loop. Latest near term
models still show these features and resulting area of snow
continuing to drop south thru Northern Lower Michigan as we head
into the overnight hours...with additional lake effect snow
showers developing behind the upper trough. Low level flow will
veer just a bit behind this feature...shifting from the W/NW to
the N/NW...which should target areas within the ongoing Winter
Wx Advisories. Will maintain all headlines as is for the rest of
the night...with 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall expected.
Gusty winds will cause some blowing/drifting snow and further
lower vsbys overnight into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

PV anomalies to our south...with additional PV slowly swirling its
way down into the UP this afternoon...dragging an east-west oriented
surface trough down into the UP as well...where lake effect/enhanced
snow showers continue to persist, especially across the central UP.
Finally starting to see a reflection of better forcing with an
uptick in the latest radar from MQT as of ~19z. Colder air aloft
behind this...as well as weaker stability and additional moisture
over Ontario.

Expecting trough axis to continue to swing down through the area
this afternoon into tonight...driving enhancement of lake based snow
showers as it does so. Heaviest snow is expected to creep in between
21z and 6z, starting from north to south. A quick 1-3 inches of snow
is expected across the area, enhanced into the 2-4 inch range over
our usual NW/NNW flow areas of NW Lower Michigan. Gusty winds
tonight will add to the mess and cause further impacts to travel.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLICK ROADS TONIGHT...As mentioned
above...watching that better forcing creep southward into the north
central UP attm, with an uptick in radar returns over MQT`s area as
of 19z....with additional decent radar returns out over eastern Lake
Superior dropping out of Ontario along/just behind the front. I
would expect this trend...the uptick in radar returns...to continue
into this evening/overnight for our area, from north to south, as
the trough axis swings through. Flow should turn much more northerly
in the wake of the trough axis, per upstream obs (some even turning
a bit northeasterly over Ontario)...which suggests the focus for
better snowfall may shift a little westward compared to earlier
thinking this morning...as more of a NNW flow would be preferred
under that regime. Have therefore opted to include Grand Traverse
County in the advisory for this reason; expect the bulk of the
impacts to be focused east of M-37...though if flow turns even more
northerly or slightly northeasterly overnight...this could swing
impacts more along M-37, straight off the Bay....and could increase
impacts for Leelanau and Benzie counties, which are currently not
terribly favored for much more than 1-3 inches of snow.

Have gone a little higher on snow-liquid ratios...i.e., closer to
18:1, given this morning`s 17:1 ratio at our office with good DGZ
action and saturation through at least 700mb. Think tonight will be
similar...though more favorable for better snowfall
rates/SLRs...given weaker stability and deeper moisture expected to
pivot in with this trough...which should result in a quick burst of
accumulations across the area. Additionally, think interior higher
terrain areas (i.e., between our office and Kalkaska) will have a
greater likelihood of seeing snow stick around, given that snow is
still trying to stick around at least a little bit through 18z in
these areas, per a quick perusal of webcams. Not to mention
temperatures are struggling to crack into the mid 30s across much of
NW Lower as well thus far this afternoon...as we`ve been cold
advecting and cloudy much of the day. Temps tonight likely to drop
toward 20F tonight, especially over the interior and the UP...which
could further allow for accumulations on untreated surfaces...again,
similar to last week. Additionally, any roads that are wet/treated
could get sloppy, particularly if snowfall rates do ramp up tonight
and overcome the rate of melting on the roads.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern/Synopsis: Deep upper troffing continues over eastern Canada.
A weak shortwave digs into the northern lakes Mon afternoon. A
somewhat more prominent wave will move overhead late Tuesday. At the
surface, a secondary cold front will be exiting to the south early
Monday. Ridging tries to build in from the south Mon evening, but
that gives way to an inbound clipper low will slows as it moves into
the northern lakes Tuesday.

Forecast: Respectable lake effect snow will be ongoing to start the
morning in nnw flow. 850mb temps do remain in the lower to middle
minus teens. But overall, coverage/intensity will be decreasing with
time. As the secondary cold front exits south early in the day,
deeper moisture will be taken with it. Subtle 500mb ridging builds
in during the morning (ahead of the next wave digging southward).
This will contribute to a temporary drying trend. 1000-850mb winds
do back during the afternoon, to nw and then wnw. This will push
snow showers further east, especially in eastern upper MI. But the
gradual loss of a Superior connection will further hurt
activity in northern lower. After high pops to start Monday in
nw lower MI, pops decrease and slide eastward with time during
the day. Snow amounts up to an inch.

Broad warm advection developing ahead of the incoming clipper will
allow better moisture to develop se into our area Mon night and
Tuesday. Isentropic ascent would be enough for light synoptic precip
in northern areas. But w to sw sub-850mb winds will support some
lake enhancement into far northern lower and eastern upper MI. This
will be limited by the increasing warm advection, especially into
Tuesday, when 850mb temps increase to -8 to -10c. So instability
will decrease with time, and by Tuesday, snow will become a bit
sloppy/slushy as the BL warms as well. Snow is likely to break out
in northern areas Mon night, especially overnight, then persist into
Tuesday. 1-3" accums progged for now in the north half of the area,
highest in the tip of northern lower MI, as well as in Chippewa Co
in eastern upper MI.

Max temps mid 20s to mid 30s Monday, mid 30s to lower 40s Tuesday.
Lows Mon night in the upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern/Synopsis: Rex block in the west is likely to give way by mid-
week, and the upper pattern is progged to gradually deamplify. Our
flow aloft maintains a northerly component, but less so with time by
the end of the week.

Forecast: Chilly conditions mid-week behind the departing clipper,
as colder air returns. High pressure will build se-ward into the
area from central Canada. Max temps look to be stuck in the 20s to
lower 30s Wed-Thu, and low temps will dip well into the teens to
perhaps single digits. Lake effect snow will be supported,
especially in wnw-flow snowbelts into Wed, but we should be trending
drier after that. Onset of warm advection could generate some snow
chances again at the end of the week, and perhaps leaking into the
weekend as well. Temps are likely to rebound somewhat by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Upper level trough axis and surface reflection will pivot thru
Northern Michigan tonight...providing synoptic support for
ongoing NW flow lake enhanced snow shower activity across our
area thru tonight and into early Monday. Deep ridging will
begin to work its way into the Western Great Lakes region in the
wake of these features on Monday...resulting in diminishing snow
shower activity (both in areal coverage and intensity) as we
head into Monday afternoon and evening. Prevailing conditions
will remain low VFR/MVFR...periodically dropping to IFR within
some of the heavier snow showers. Surface winds will remain from
the NW at 15 to 25 kts with some higher gusts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty WNW/NW winds to become more N/NNW through the rest of the
afternoon/evening in the wake of a sharp trough...starting first on
Whitefish Bay, ending latest toward Manistee and Alabaster. Winds to
remain gusty, into the 20-30kt range overnight...eventually quieting
down through the day Monday and backing to NW/W as high pressure
slips back in for a brief period...though winds quickly turn
southerly by Monday night into Tuesday...ahead of the next system
bringing another round of snow. Locally intense snow bands possible
tonight into Monday morning over northern Lake Michigan and perhaps
between the Bridge and Presque Isle light on NW/NNW flow; these
should also diminish quickly into Monday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for MIZ021-022-
     026-027.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...FEF
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...FEF


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