Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011428
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTH EDGE OF -RA SWATH SITS A BIT NORTH OF TVC AND ROGERS. HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTING POPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROCEEDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DIMINISHING TREND IN EASTERN WI AND CENTRAL
LAKE MI...AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY FILLS. ANTICIPATE
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E FROM MIDDAY THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOME THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN EASTERN UPPER MI...WILL SEE MORE OF
THAT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALREADY NEAR OR PAST 50F IN EASTERN
UPPER...THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST PLACE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
(HIGHS PUSHING 60F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US
/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CONVECTION. HEART OF
THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REACHED THE APPALACHIANS...NEVER REALLY REACHING INTO MICHIGAN. DRY
NE FLOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ERODE THE NRN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD NOW TRYING TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO OUR CWA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP SO FAR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SUITE...BUT WILL MAKE
A FINAL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING SE WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. NRN EXTENT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG M-32...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. WITH PERSISTENT DRY
NE FLOW AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF MICHIGAN...QPF AND
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WILL WIND SPEEDS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

(5/2)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
FORCING THE MOISTURE WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH ON
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE NIGHT AS THE 700-
500 MB LAYER RH REMAIN < 30% AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH.

(5/3)TUESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT MORE ON THIS TIME
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS
SWINGING RAIN INTO N LOWER ABOUT 2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DURING THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
REGION AS THE 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO E UPPER AND THE SFC LOW PUSHES
THROUGH N LOWER AND N LAKE HURON.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVER THE CONUS, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WITH THE CENTER (500 MB RIDGE AXIS) OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE TWO CUT OFF LOWS, ONE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCK SLOWLY MOVES, OR AT LEAST
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MOVES, TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT SO THAT BY
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW WOULD BE OVER THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-32 (APN/TVC/MBL). RAIN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP VSBYS VFR. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA AROUND
AND SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
COAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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