Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180755
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
355 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High impact weather potential: None. Just pretty gusty.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, a potent shortwave trough was trying to close
off as it pushes into central Canada, as well as it`s associated
deepening sfc low. A resurgence of warmer air was blasting north
through Canada ahead of the system, while a tightening pressure
gradient was being seen pressing eastward ahead of the system and
down through the western Great Lakes. Winds were increasing above
the sfc in nrn Michigan, keeping the BL from being completely
decoupled, despite a pretty dry atmosphere around 0.50" to 0.60"
PWAT and clear skies. As a result, temperature falls were definitely
slowing. Readings were in the upper 30s to lower 40s in eastern low
lying areas, and in the middle 40s to middle 50s elsewhere.

The central Canada upper/sfc lows will track eastward through Canada
today and across Ontario tonight. The pressure gradient will continue
to tighten through this evening, with gusty SW conditions likely
developing pretty quickly by late morning. Strongest gusts are
likely come later this afternoon as we tap into 30 to 40 knots at
the top of a shallow inversion around 925mb. This will lead to 35 to
45 mph SW gusts, strongest probably coming in off lingering overlake
instability from Lake Michigan into eastern upper/far NW lower.
Doubt the 45 mph (Advisory level) gusts will be widespread, so no
advisory issued. The evening will be quite gusty still too, until the
gradient weakens overnight ahead of a dry cold front that may bring
a fairly brief period of strato cu. Air mass just way too dry for
rainfall.

Highs in the middle to upper 60s with some lower 70s in downsloping
regimes of NE lower. Lows tonight in the 45 to 50F range most areas
as there will still be some wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...A bit cooler Thursday, then warming up Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A cold front will be exiting our
southeastern counties Thursday morning, ushering in a cooler airmass
that will stick around only briefly. Behind the front, low clouds
over northern Lower will quickly clear out by mid to late morning as
the low levels dry out, with only some passing thin cirrus the rest
of the day. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 50s north to
mid 60s south...a bit cooler than Wednesday but still above normal
for this time of year.

Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds Thursday night will lead to
efficient radiational cooling with lows dipping into the upper 30s
inland to mid 40s near the lakes. Ridging at the surface and aloft
over the Upper Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday will lead to
continued dry weather on Friday and also kick off a warmup to close
out the week. Much of northern Lower likely to reach the low 70s on
Friday. Somewhat breezy southerly flow expected with a respectable
pressure gradient over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Weather pattern will become more active heading into the weekend as
an approaching potent shortwave trough makes its way across the
nation`s midsection and nudges the overhead ridging farther
downstream. This approaching trough will push a sharp cold front
through the region sometime late Saturday night into Sunday. Models
show a ribbon of substantial moisture for late October out ahead of
the front with potential for a relatively narrow band of showers
along the front. Marginal elevated instability could perhaps support
a rumble of thunder or two Saturday night near Lake Michigan. An
incoming clipper-type system on Monday will lead to deeper upper
troughing over the Upper Great Lakes heading into mid-week, as well
as a significantly colder airmass. Will likely see some lake effect
processes develop as a result, and forecast soundings are looking
supportive for perhaps the first snowflakes of the season in some
spots.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

With high pressure nearly across the Ohio Valley...solid VFR
conditions continue across northern Michigan through the day on
Wednesday. Only caveat...some shallow fog has materialized across
northern lower Michigan this evening and will briefly impact
PLN/APN over the next few hours. Surface winds will begin to ramp
back up later overnight and particularly on Wednesday. This will
lead to another period of LLWS conditions at the terminal sites
toward Wednesday morning...and decent gustiness through the day
Wednesday with some gusts possibly pushing 30 knots.

Weak-ish cold front will slide through the region Wednesday night
and may bring a brief period of lower (marginal MVFR CIGS) cloud
cover to the region.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A tightening pressure gradient will occur through this evening as
deep low pressure tracks through Canada. Winds will increase to
gales later today and this evening in Lake Michigan and Whitefish
Bay until an approaching cold front later tonight relaxes the
gradient some. Still somewhat unsure about Lake Huron gales, and
have kept them in that high end advisory category. Low end gales are
certainly not out of the question there. The cold front will be dry,
no rain as the atmosphere is still quite dry. Winds will weaken
further into Thursday, but a handful of advisories may still be
needed. More wind expected at the end of the work week and into
Saturday with yet another low pressure in Canada. Advisories
likely.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     LHZ349.
LM...GALE WARNING from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...SMD


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