


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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424 FXUS63 KAPX 092337 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 737 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible across northeast lower this afternoon and early evening. Low chance for a severe storm. - Turning humid this weekend with more appreciable rain chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad mid-upper level troughing remains atop the Great Lakes region this afternoon with the trough axis expected to cross northern MI late this afternoon/early evening. ~1013mb surface low situated over northern and central MI will continue to track east along a nearly stationary boundary this afternoon, eventually exiting stage right later this evening. Building instability, especially southeastern sections of the forecast area, combined with incoming inverted surface troughing will be the focus for potential isolated to scattered shower/storm activity through early-mid evening. Forecast Details: Certainly a muggier day out there today across northern MI with dew points in the 60s across much of the area early this afternoon. Instability continues to build with 2,000-2,500 J/kg SBCAPE nosing into northeast lower -- also the area of focus for additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development this afternoon through early-mid evening. Not sold at all on just how much more numerous this activity will be with latest trends continuing to focus better coverage over central and southeast lower MI where surface convergence is maximized. Nonetheless, for storms that are able to materialize, aforementioned destabilization combined with 25-30 kts of deep layer bulk shear may prove to be enough to kick off an isolated strong to severe storm with an instance or two of localized damaging winds/large hail as the primary threats. SPC continues to paint these areas -- southeast of a HTL-APN line -- in a Marginal Risk. PWATs climbing near or just above 1.25", along with slow storm motion, will also set the stage for locally heavy rainfall under any isolated showers/storms with localized 1"+ amounts possible in a short duration. Areas where this is of most concern is across far southeastern counties (Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac) that saw locally torrential rain this past Sunday. As a result, some localized flooding, even flashy in spots, will be possible -- again, assuming showers/storms are able to initiate over our area. WPC has highlighted this area (and all of southeast MI) in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain. Shower/storm chances diminish through the evening with a rather tranquil overnight period expected, aside from some potential for patchy to areas of fog (locally dense in spots). Lows expected to fall into the 50s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Pattern Forecast: Heights aloft begin to rise late tonight into Thursday as upstream ridging makes headway toward the western Great Lakes. Surface high pressure follows suit with the ridge axis expected to cross Thursday night/early Friday morning. More amplified troughing set to arrive from the northwest Friday night- Saturday -- providing the next chance for more numerous showers and storms. By late weekend/early next week, more zonal or low amplitude ridging expected aloft with attendant surface high pressure before additional rain chances arrive late in the forecast period toward the middle of next week. Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated for Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s and low 80s Thursday warming to the mid-upper 80s for Friday. Shower/storm chances arrive as early as Friday night with those chances continuing Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday. Could be some rather appreciable rainfall through this time frame depending on timing and moisture transport, which appears to be pretty favorable at this time with latest trends supporting dew points surging to near 70 degrees and PWs 1.5"+. Non-zero severe weather threat as well just given a crude look at potential instability/shear parameters, but certainly a few days away from any real confidence in that. A reprieve from active weather potential later Sunday into the start of next week with additional shower/storm chances arriving by midweek as another wave looks to arrive from the northwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Somewhat muggy airmass will lead to fog by late tonight. Have all sites but TVC progged to IFR conditions, with MVFR at TVC. Fog burns off quickly Thursday morning, becoming and staying VFR. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JZ