000
FXUS63 KAPX 262044
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...

SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FIXED ACROSS THE STATE WITH NRN MICHIGAN
GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN DECAYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING SSE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND MAJOR COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC. THICKER MID CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SKIRTING THROUGH THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY "LOOK" OUT THERE
FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD
LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE HURON INTO PARTS
OF NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY STILL LOOKING TO
ESSENTIALLY DECAY QUICKLY TONIGHT WHILE SLIDING SSE OUT OF THE
REGION BY MORNING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP HAS
BEEN HITTING A WALL AT THE MICHIGAN BORDER ALL DAY...AND NOTHING
WILL CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT EITHER. SO...WILL KEEP VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN
THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. MEANWHILE...ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS MORE NE OVERNIGHT DRAGGING DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: INITIAL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH
BACKGROUND PATTERN OF WESTERN RIDGING/EASTERN TROUGHING REMAINS.
THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH IN THE PROCESS...NOT ONLY ALLOWING
SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION...BUT SETTING THE STAGE FOR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FINALLY ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH WOODS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT AND ASSESSING ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEM.

DETAILS: CURRENT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW ONE TO YIELD...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY AND MODERATING ONE
FOR US...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S AND WEDNESDAY A
GOOD 5 OR MORE DEGREES WARMER. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL HAVE PLENTY TO
SAY JUST HOW COLD WE GET TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT AS DRYING DEEPENS AND LAKE HURON
PROCESSES ARE LOST. CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION BEGIN WELL
AHEAD OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THAT LEAVES A GOOD 6+ HOURS OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING. GOTTA THINK
COLDER IS THE WAY TO GO (SEE THIS PAST NIGHT!)...AND WILL TREND
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. THIS
AGAIN DROPS SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCALES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE GOOSE EGG.

FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES AS SOON AS
LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES RACE
TOWARD THE AREA. DRY LOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE HARD TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...BUT STILL THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WAA PROCESSES/DEEP
LAYER DYNAMICS INCREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT...MAXING OUT LATE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM...BUT QUICK
TAP OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES UP NEAR HALF AN INCH)
COINCIDENT WITH ARRIVAL OF PEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD DO THE TRICK TO BRING
A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ALL. LIMITED DURATION AND OVERALL
LACK OFF STRONGER DYNAMICS/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACT TO KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK. THINKING A GENERAL 1-3/2-4 IS TO BE
EXPECTED. TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC...CENTERING ITSELF ON THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR GREATEST IMPACTS. BECAUSE OF SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM THROUGH OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS THURSDAY`S ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT...CHILLY
850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA (FALLING TO
ROUGHLY -14C TO -19C ACROSS THE CWA). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST LES ZONES OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BEFORE A QUICK REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE (850MB -
700MB RH FALLING TO LESS THAN 40%) ARRIVES BY 12Z FRIDAY ESSENTIALLY
LIMITING MUCH OF ANY FALLING PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO JUST
FLURRIES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST APPROACHES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA.

QUITE CHILLY AIR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -24C TO -28C. WHILE THIS WOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS...THIS COLD SIGNAL HAS SHOWN UP AT
THIS TIMEFRAME OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND WINDS UP
VERIFYING NOT NEARLY TO THE DEGREE SHOWN. SO WHILE IT`S STILL
POSSIBLE...NOT EXPECTING IT TO VERIFY TO THE DEGREE OF COLD THAT
IS BEING ADVERTISED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE NRN MICHIGANS WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION...EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/LAKE CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO THE APN AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY DRAGGING DRIER AIR DOWN
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM