Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 291932
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
332 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING... BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT.  CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FALL WEATHER UNDERWAY...

COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ROUGHLY
RUNNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM...WITH
CIGS/VSBYS/TEMPS CRASHING RAPIDLY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT (ABOUT A
12 DEGREE DROP IN AN HOUR). FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO FOLLOWS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG THE TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN THE TAIL END OF A STRONG UPPER JET THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES UP THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL WILL ALSO STEADILY ADVANCE E/S OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD BRING JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SOME RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE E/S THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BRINGING JUST ABOUT EVERYONE A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/CLOUDS...TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO WARM NICELY INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND THERE IS AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND AGITATED
CU ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE TO GET SOME
THUNDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT SLIDES ON THROUGH.
AFTER THAT...ABUNDANT THICK STRATUS STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
AND WILL LOCK IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CONVINCING SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE...
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING. SO WILL TRANSITION CATEGORICAL POPS TO
PATCHY-AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER PATTERN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  LOW.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  5-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS QUASI-STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48.  EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED THIS WEEK BY
RECURVING TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.  THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM...WITH A RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS
WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST DETAILS:  A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H8 COOL
POCKET OVERHEAD AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING
INVERSION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SLOW AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT AS THE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE...WITH READINGS
LIKELY STUCK FIRMLY IN THE 50S.  LOW CLOUDS /MORE DRIZZLE?/ MAY
PLAGUE THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE STRENGTHENING SOUTH
FLOW EVENTUALLY SCOURS OUT THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...HELPING TO PUSH H8 TEMPS TOWARD +10C.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW MUCH WE CAN REALIZE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT GIVEN POSSIBLY
STILL SOME LOW CLOUD ISSUES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WITH MODEST QG SUPPORT...ALONG WITH RFQ JET KINEMATICS...WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
DROPPING TOWARD -1C.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON HOW
QUICKLY FRONT DEPARTS WITH THE STEADIER RAIN.  EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SATURDAY MAY
SEE THE MOST INTENSE DIURNAL SHOWER COMPONENT WITH THE STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF -25C H5 AIR OVERHEAD.  IT MAY EVEN BE COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.  NO
DOUBT A MUCH DIFFERENT WEEKEND FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY...BEFORE THE BIG COOLDOWN FOR
THE WEEKEND.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TEMPERATURES IN SOME
AREAS ON SATURDAY COULD STAY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY NORTH AND CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING TO IFR RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. PLN/TVC/MBL ALREADY
THERE...AND APN WILL BE THERE BY 21Z OR SO. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION...NARROW CORRIDOR WILL SLIP DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE TERMINAL SITES. RAIN ENDS BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
SOME DRIZZLE WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT NOW SLIPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON THE LAKES THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





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