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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261712
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1212 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THIS
MORNING...AND REVISIT THE POTENTIAL OF CANCELING IT EARLY LATER
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTER WINDS
ARE KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT/S
STILL COLD WITH WAKEFIELD COMING IN AT AROUND 08Z WITH -29 AND
WATERSMEET NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AT -24F. CLOSER TO THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 5MPH...AND A LES CLOUDS
ROLLING IN...TEMPERATURE ROSE SLIGHTLY AND WIND CHILLS OF
-10 TO -20F HAVE BEEN MORE COMMON.

IT/S AMAZING HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE COLD NIGHT LAST NIGHT AND
COLD DAY YESTERDAY HAD ON THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND AS A
RESULT THE INTENSITY/EXTENT OF LES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR JUST FEW
STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS...FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR...JUST E OF ISLE ROYALE...AND
JUST S OF MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND
COLD AIR...EXPECT MORE ICE/THICKER ICE TO FORM. EVEN ONCE LES HAS
BEEN ABLE TO SLIDE ONSHORE...THE INLAND EXTENT HAS BEEN MINIMAL
THANKS TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NE MT/W ND WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV
GUIDANCE FOR WIND DIRECTION THIS MORNING...AS IT WAS BETTER KEYED
INTO THE MORE N FLOW...AND NOT THE MORE NW FLOW COMING OUT OF MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. ATTEMPTED TO TRACK THE STREAMERS OF LES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WINDS SLOWLY TURN MORE OUT
OF THE NW. EXPECT MAINLY SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY...WITH A FEW
HIGHER READINGS POSSIBLE S CENTRAL.

FOR TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL SINK TO E NEBRASKA AND IA WITH THE RIDGE
/ALBEIT FLATTENED/ STILL COVER UPPER MI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE S HUDSON BAY LOW WILL ALSO BE A NEAR-PERMANENT FEATURE OVER
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE -20 TO -
25C RANGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. CONTINUED ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO -20F AGAIN OVER E GOGEBIC AND
IRON COUNTIES. WITH THAT A COUPLE OF SITES MAY GET CLOSE TO -25F FOR
WIND CHILL/APPARENT TEMP READINGS...BUT NOT AS MANY AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS THE COLDEST AIR
RETREATS INTO NE CANADA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE SW CONUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FRI INTO SAT...WINDS BACKING TO SW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OFFSHORE. WEAK WAA AND LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE TEENS FRI AND TO
AROUND 20 SATURDAY.

SUN...THE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WILL ONLY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW AT MOST AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/PCPN
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE 850MB FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES.

MON-TUE...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AS THE SW CONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS...SHORTWAVES EMERGING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A LARGE
SHIELD OF PCPN INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE NRN END OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN...THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GREATER PCPN AMOUNTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR
NOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THE PATTERN/DETAILS WILL DEVELOP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

NNW WINDS ARE BRINGING LAKE EFFECT WITH IFR VSBY AT TIMES TO KIWD
AND KSAW. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT
BOTH THESE SITES TO CLEAR OUT BUT THE LAKE EFFECT MAY IN TURN BEGIN
TO AFFECT KCMX. IFR VSBY COULD OCCUR THERE AS WELL...BUT ONLY WENT
MVFR AS THE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS A LOT OF THICKER FAST
ICE. AS WINDS TURN MORE WSW BY FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO DEPART KCMX. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTN AT ALL THE TAF SITES...THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AT KCMX. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

DUE TO THE COLD AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS...MUCH OF THE AREA OF OPEN
WATER FROM THE GUSTY SW AND THEN NW WINDS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
HAS FROZEN AGAIN. WAVE HEIGHTS/FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SMALL FETCH OF ANY OPEN WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER S SASKATCHEWAN AND E MONTANA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. EXPECT A LOW OVER N
HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY TO SLIDE ACROSS N QUEBEC MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAG
A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM YET ANOTHER HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF