182
FXUS63 KMQT 261141
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
741 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A second round of rain is expected this afternoon into Friday.
  Widespread amounts of 0.7 to 1 inches of rain are expected
  with higher amounts up to 1.5" possible (~50% chance) in
  portions of the north central and northeast by late Friday
  morning. The WPC Outlook for Excessive Rainfall is a Slight
  Risk (category 2 of 4).

- After slightly below normal temperatures at the end of the
  work week, a brief warmup into the 80s is expected this
  weekend into Monday, with showers and thunderstorms possible
  (around 50%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and WV imagery show a shortwave overhead
with a deeper shortwave trough upstream over the Dakotas and NE. At
the sfc, high pressure resides over N Ontario and Quebec with a weak
sfc trough over the Plains extending ENE into the Great Lakes.
Light radar returns span much of the central and E with higher
reflectivities still lingering over the far E. MRMS rainfall
rates of 0.25-0.75" in the heaviest shra match up with sfc
observation accumulations. Flooding concerns have remained low
through this first round, broadly holding around 15-40% of FFG.
Temps this morning will continue in the 50s.

Shra coverage and intensity diminishes through this morning as the
shortwave departs to the NE, the LLJ lightens up, and 700mb f-gen
weakens. Additional accumulations of only a few hundreths over the W
to near 0.5" are expected for the remainder of the first round of
shra. No thunder is expected the remainder of this round as
instability has fallen off. A few hours of a precip lull is expected
ahead of the next round of shra with the deeper shortwave. Otherwise
today brings E winds ~10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Cooler
than normal temps are expected in the upper 50s to 60s.

Some iso/sct -shra return this afternoon before the main second
round of heavier precip lifts over the UP into tonight. WAA
accompanies a deeper shortwave lifting NE over the UP this evening
into tonight and a strengthening LLJ; a weaker upper jet streak RRQ
overhead will also be present. The shra in this second round will
likely have a more convective structure to them given a few hundred
j/kg of MUCAPE (model dependent, but likely 500j/kg or less) over
the E, highest near Lake MI and bulk shear of at least 40 kts.
Favorable deep cloud moisture is again noted in model soundings up
to 12kft with PWATs increasing to 1.6-1.9", highest SE. The 6/26 0Z
HREF probabilities of at least 1" are widespread between 15-25% with
streaks of up to 50% over the N-Central and E. Probabilities of 2"
or more are capped at 15-25%. The going fcst reflects widespread
amounts from this afternoon through Fri morning between 0.75-1.0"
with higher amounts approaching 1.25-1.5" in the N-Cental and NE.
The convective nature of this second round and prior widespread
precip brings some low flash flooding potential (~15% for most
outside the far W spine of the UP), reflected in the WPC Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall.

Precip ends from W to E on Fri, but lingering sct/bkn skies keep
temps cooler than normal again during the day; a few spots may warm
~70 in the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A dry Friday night into Saturday morning is expected as weak high
pressure returns. Into the weekend, as both major synoptic longwave
features over the CONUS this past week will have decayed, quasi-
zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through the weekend, with the
weather being highly susceptible to weaker impulse shortwaves. Given
the spread of paths of such shortwaves for forcing, uncertainty in
potential for organized convection this weekend is high (and thus,
no severe thunderstorm outlooks for the UP yet), but ingredients
will likely be present as a warmup to the 80s is expected. With the
warmth comes surface instability with LREF mean surface CAPE growing
to around 1500 J/kg in the interior west by 00Z Sunday and around
2000 J/kg by 00Z Monday, both coincident with about 25 kt of bulk
shear to organize convection.

Given the weakly-forced pattern, it is no surprise that the global
deterministics and ensembles rapidly diverge in how the next pattern
establishes itself, however, the most likely pattern for next week
looks to be ridging over the Rockies to Plains with troughing over
eastern North America. This leads to persistent high pressure over
the UP interrupted by clipper shortwaves riding over the ridge
bringing periodic rain chances but otherwise better chances at
warmer than normal conditions, which the CPC outlooks broadly align
with.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The full duration of the 12Z TAF period continues flight
restrictions at all sites. A lull in shra is expected this morning
with generally MVFR conditions, but a wave approaching the region
from the SW will bring another round of shra and deterioration this
evening down to IFR and eventually LIFR late tonight/Fri morning.
That said, SAW is currently bouncing between LIFR/IFR cigs with
possible MVFR vis at times for the next two hours. SAW may improve
slightly to low end MVFR by this afternoon before deteriorating like
the other sites into tonight. Otherwise E winds hold around 10 kts
with gusts up to around 20 kts possible at CMX this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 516 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

E to NE winds increase today to around 10-15 kts across the lake
with gusts ~20-25 kts over the far W arm of the lake into this
evening. NE winds at 15-20 kts are expected across the lake tonight
into Fri morning before winds back N and settle below 15 kts for Fri
night. Winds remain light and variable, mainly less than 20 kts the
rest of the weekend. Winds become W for early next week, but likely
continue to hold below 20 kts. Another round of showers is expected
tonight, which may lead to some patchy fog development tonight into
Fri.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM EDT this evening through
     this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...Jablonski