Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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188
FXUS63 KMQT 200749
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
249 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S. this
morning and a trough off the Pacific NW coast and another in the
Canadian Rockies. This trough in the Canadian Rockies digs quickly
southeast into the northern plains tonight and is poised to move
into the upper Great Lakes. Did not make too many changes to the
going forecast overall and looks pretty quiet as lake effect snow
ends over the east and starts up late tonight again as colder air
comes in late. Will have filtered sunshine through high clouds today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

A compact trough digging SE across southern Canada will bring a
987hPa surface low just north of Lake Superior late Monday night.
Increasing cold air advection and a strengthening pressure gradient
will produce blustery conditions across the CWA late Monday night
through the day Tuesday. NW wind gusts to 40mph along Lake Superior
and to 30mph inland will be possible.

Moderate lake effect snow is also expected Monday night through
Tuesday night for the NW-wind snow belts, especially east Tuesday
afternoon as inversion heights rise to around 8kft. Winter Weather
Advisories may be needed across the east Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Little weather impacts are expected for any holiday travel on
Wednesday as backing surface winds and WAA limit precip to light LES
across the Keweenaw and far NE Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Another quick shot of cold air will allow for an increase in LES for
the NW-wind snow belts Thanksgiving afternoon and evening before WAA
and backing flow end LES by late Thursday night.

A more potent clipper system passing north of Lake Superior is then
expected to affect the Upper Great Lakes Friday night through
Saturday. The system will be rather progressive, but a more southern
track would produce decent impacts to the CWA via snow and wind.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

As winds back to the s and air mass moderates, ocnl lake effect
-shsn/flurries will end at KCMX overnight, and MVFR cigs will clear
out to VFR.  At KIWD/KSAW, VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst
period under drier air mass associated with passing high pres ridge.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 248 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

An area of low pressure will approach, then move through the area
tonight through Tuesday giving a period of southwest gales tonight
before shifting to northwest gales Tuesday into Tuesday night. The
next chance of seeing near-gale winds will be Friday into Saturday;
otherwise, winds are generally expected to be in the 15 to 25 knot
range.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LSZ248>251-267.

  Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07



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