Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 042335
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
735 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL UPPER MI. MODELS SHOW Q-VECT
DIV/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF MID-LVL RIDGE
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SFC-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL CU LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER INLAND AREAS AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS SHOW BUILDING 5H HGTS AND MINIMAL OR NO
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE INLAND SW. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH SFC
HIGH OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAYS READINGS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL
BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE EVENING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME LOCATIONS
FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST LOWS
FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD FIRE WEATHER SITES OVER THE EASTERN U.P.

THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON A WEAK WAVE AFFECTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND THEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. WILL SLOWLY
RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE VALUES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSH VALUES UP AROUND LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN
PUSH OF 850-500MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
ALSO TREND QPF VALUES UP DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND ALSO TRENDS SHOWN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT AT LEAST THE WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE A NICE WETTING
RAIN...BARRING ANY CONVECTION ROBBING THE MOISTURE FROM MOVING THIS
FAR NORTH. INSTABILITY MARGINAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. FOR
FRIDAY...BEST INSTABILITY STAYS IN WISCONSIN AND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP
MUCAPE VALUES BELOW 100 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL TRIM SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF.

FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS
VARY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OUT
OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THE 12Z
GFS/GEM KEEP THE CLOSED UPPER LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE
SWEEPING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE CWA ONLY BEING BRUSHED BY
WAVES THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENING AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA (DECENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN). WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AND HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO THE BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH
PRES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS


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