Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
246 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 501 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis early this morning indicated a shortwave
lifting ne from the base of mid/upper level trough centered over the
Central Plains. At the surface, an elongated low pres trough was
located from James Bay across Lake Superior into southern WI. Mostly
clear skies and lingering low-level moisture has contributed to
areas of fog across portions of central Upper Mi as noted on IR
satellite imagery and sfc obs.  However, mid-high clouds in advance
of showers associated with incoming shortwave are now beginning to
spread into the area fm the southwest which could limit coverage
and density of fog.

Today, the weakening shortwave and area of sct showers lifting north
through ncntrl WI early this morning will reach into sw and south
central portions of Upper Mi toward 12z this morning and could
linger into this afternoon. However, the stronger q-vector
convergence associated with the main shrtwv and closed low digging
into IA will continue to remain south of Upper Michigan, and
drier ne flow circulating around high pres centered over northern
Ontario will continue to keep much of the northern tier and
eastern counties dry today. Expect temps to remain below normal
with highs generally in the 50s except lower 60s south central and

Tonight, A few models show a hint of another weak shortwave lifting
north into Upper Mi tonight, but general model consensus keeps best
deep layer q-vector convergence to the south closer to the closed
low circulation. Will only include slight chance pops for showers
over south central, on periphery of better forcing. Expect min temps
from upper 30s interior west to mid 40s south central where cloud
cover will be more persistent.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

No high impact weather is expected through the long term. Only item
to mention specifically is that there`s a slim chance of some frost
over far western Upper Michigan Wed night. Otherwise, looks like
chances for some light rain over at least portions of the CWA in
each period with temps near or below normal. Did not make any
changes to blended initialization.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 235 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

Expect generally VFR cigs into this evng, when some lower MVFR cigs
are likely to dvlp at the TAF sites with upslope llvl nne flow and
loss of daytime heating/mixing. Upstream obs over ne MN/adjoining
Ontario show a good deal of lo cld, so lower IFR cigs may impact IWD
for a time. With the arrival of drier air on Wed and daytime
heating/mixing, cigs wl rebound into the VFR range.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 501 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

A low pres trough lingering over the area will maintain fairly light
winds across the lake through Tuesday. Winds under 20 kts should
then be the rule into Fri as a relatively flat pres gradient
dominates the Upper Lakes.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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