Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 120523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE THE WSW FOR EXPECTATIONS DURING UPCOMING EVENT. ESSENTIALLY...AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM HUDSON BAY TO WRN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING N-S
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LINGERING A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD HAVE
850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -21C OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW...BUT THOSE TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING TO AROUND -29C BY 00Z SAT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWS THE SFC TROUGH. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY LES ALONG THE SFC TROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL SEE MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR IN HEADLINE DECISIONS WAS THE WINDS...GUSTING TO 45 MPH ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT
TO SEE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...WITH ZERO OR NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES...ALONG M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING. FOR THIS
REASON DECIDED TO GO WITH LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBO OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW JUSTIFIED LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES. MAY ALSO NEED DELTA
COUNTY IN AN ADVISORY IF A STRONG BAND CAN EXTEND INTO THE NERN PART
OF THE COUNTY...BUT WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS MONITOR FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. HAVE TEMPS MOSTLY FALLING ON FRI...WITH NOON FRI TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER ALL BUT LAKE MI BORDERING AREAS. THE COLD
TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING TO
-25 FROM W TO E ON FRI...EVEN STARTING THE DAY WITH -25 WIND CHILL
OVER THE W.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
U.S. 00Z SAT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z MON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW WINDING DOWN OF THE EVENT.
AIRMASS WILL BE COLD AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD FOR LOW
TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS AS AIRMASS IS COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. OVERALL THOUGH...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. 12Z MON. SFC COLD FRONT DIVIDING THE COLD
AIR FROM WARMER AIR SITES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON WED. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH/ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WILL
SPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING STARTING WITH KCMX AND THEN SPREADING INTO
KIWD AND KSAW.  EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR TO
OCCASIONAL LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A TROUGH AND
STRONGER NNW WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR...RESULTING IN LOWERED
VSBYS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WHILE KSAW FARTHER INLAND FROM THE LAKE SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH
SATURDAY...UP TO 30 KNOTS...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
     084.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ009>011.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ004-007-
     085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ263>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ264>266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS


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