Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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320
FXUS63 KMQT 290903
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
503 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Today and Tonight: High pressure will remain in control of the
pattern through this time period, bringing quiet weather, other than
some afternoon CU along lake breeze boundaries, and near to slightly
below normal temperatures. Highs today will top out in the mid to
upper 70s away from the Great Lakes, which is very near normal for
this time of year. Overnight lows will drop down into the 40s once
again for inland locations, especially over inland-central locations
of the U.P. as the high pressure center and drier air aloft slides
over the area. Elsewhere, expect lows to be mainly in the 50s with
the warmest temperatures along the Great Lakes. For reference,
average lows this time of year are right around the mid 50s. There
may also be some patchy fog that develops late tonight as the winds
become light and radiational cooling is maximized. The area that
would have the greatest potential for patchy fog would be inland
central and inland west, especially close to the WI border where the
better soil moisture is located due to the recent rainfall in those
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 502 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Weak mid/upper level troughing over the southern Great Lakes and
ridging over northern Ontario will leave sfc ridging in place across
the nrn Lakes through the weekend resulting in dry weather and
temperatures near seasonal averages. The forecast into next week will
be influenced by a trough lifting from BC and the Pacific northwest
into nrn Manitoba Tue that will be reinforced by another vigorous
shrtwv Wed into Thu. Strengthening srly flow and moisture advection
will bring warmer and more humid conditions into the region along
with an increasing chance for shra/tsra as a frontal boundary nears
and eventually pushes through the area and weak shrtwvs brush the
area.

Saturday through Monday, expect gradual warming with max temps
climbing a few degrees each day. On Mon, max temps will generally be
in the low/mid 80s. Dewpoints will also increase into the low to mid
60s by Mon. Some models are producing isold pcpn near or over parts
of the fcst area from Saturday night into Monday. Confidence is low
with any weak shrtwvs that may affect the region. In addition, the
shallow moisture profile will also not be favorable for diurnal
convection.

Tuesday-Thursday, temperatures are expected to climb into the low to
mid 80s with dewpoints into the mid and upper 60s. A front nearing
the area may support some sct shra/tsra into mainly the west Tue
that could spread to the east by Tue night. With the sfc and mid
level low well to the nw over nrn Manitoba, shra/tsra will likely
decrease as the pcpn moves toward the ern cwa. Larger model
differences lower confidence by Wednesday as the more amplified
ECMWF keeps a stronger ridge over the wrn lakes compared to the
flatter GFS/GEFS. The GFS is also faster bringing the stronger
shrtwv and sfc front through the region Thursday compared to the
ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Expect VFR conditions and relatively light winds to prevail at all 3
TAF sites this fcst period as dry hi pres builds across the Upper
Great Lakes region. The only concern is the potential for some
shallow ground fog to impact the IWD site early this mrng with
favorable radiational cooling conditions/lighter winds.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

High pressure will linger across Lake Superior into the upcoming
weekend. This will keep winds around or less than 15 kts into the
weekend. The next chance of winds approaching 20 knots would be
early next week as a cold front approaches the Upper Great Lakes
region.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC



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