Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS



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