Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 221122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
1Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC




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