Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211856
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.

THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.

THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






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