Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 012350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

VERY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH FROST POTENTIAL THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LAKE
BREEZES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E...INCREASING 850MB
TEMPS BY 3-4C. WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS...FROST WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FROST WELL INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR AND JUST INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS INLAND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY TO COVER THIS THREAT. THE WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
WARMER MAX TEMPS ON TUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
INLAND. LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZES WILL NOT MOVE FAR INLAND DUE TO
STRONGER SLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE 500MB
RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL LOWS OVER LAKE HURON...SE QUEBEC...AND THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ALL THESE LOWS EXPECT ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

PW INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AT 1.5-1.7IN. LOOKING AT THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST CHANCE OF TS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W BY
00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
AFTER VIEWING THE MU CAPE VALUES THAT ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY THANKS TO THE
LIGHT/MORE STABLE S FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW
OVER NW MN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO E MN BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT GOES...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH W UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT.

THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGING IN THE RIDGE MUCH
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. WILL GO
AGAINST THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...UNLESS IT/S 12Z RUN
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SINKING OF THE
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND E ONTARIO/W QUEBEC  FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT TO E ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND S HUDSON BAY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY /ECMWF BEING A FARTHER S SOLUTION/. LOOK FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER THE W...ALBEIT LIMITED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL BY CUT OFF FROM THE BEST
MOISTURE /EITHER TO THE N OR S/. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKES AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS EVENING...LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SO
THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW 15KT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS
E. HEADING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
20KT TUE AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU. IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING
OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ005>007-009>014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.