Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250626
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -10 TO -20F AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL FALL TO
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER THIS
CONTINUES TO BE MORE ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD AIR THAN DANGEROUS WINDS.
WITH CRITERIA OF 10MPH OR GREATER WINDS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WIND TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. WILL KEEP SPS
GOING EARLY THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO
-15 TO -25F.

STILL HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF OPEN WATER TO CONTEND WITH ON LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO THAT EVEN WITH UPSTREAM INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DEW
POINTS OF -17C AT CKC...A FEW STREAMERS OF LES CONTINUE. INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM AROUND 5KFT AROUND 06Z THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 3KFT AFTER DAYBREAK...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WE ARE GETTING BACK INTO THE VERY
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN -21 AND -26C. WITH THE
MOISTURE STUCK BELOW 3KFT...AND THE DGZ NOWHERE IN SIGHT...THE
SMALL/SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCING SNOWFLAKES WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...LITTLE ICE MOVEMENT IS
FIGURED...AND NEW ICE MAY FORM. OVER THE E THOUGH THE PERSISTENT NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ANY THIN ICE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

FLAT DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO /POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA/.

LOOK FOR THE NEAR SFC WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /03-09Z THURSDAY/. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FOCUS OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR IRONWOOD...AND PUSH THE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY MORE TOWARD MARQUETTE. AFTER
09Z THURSDAY WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT A BIT MORE OUT OF THE
NW...SHIFTING ANY BANDS INTO MAINLY THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY ONCE
AGAIN.

WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH VERY COLD AIR TONIGHT...WITH THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FALLING TO -25F AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...E MT...AND
ND. WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CALM. HOWEVER...EVEN A 3-5KT WIND WILL BE
ABLE TO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO -25 TO -35 /LOWEST INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/. THIS WILL BE A TRICKIER FCST HEADLINE WISE...AS IN THE
PAST WEEK OR SO WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT
HAVE GONE INTO THE -35 RANGE /WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA/ WHEN WE
HAVE LITTLE TO NO WIND. AN SPS WOULD ALSO COVER THE HAZARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD IN THE HWO...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
DECIDE ON THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT /BASICALLY AFTER 02Z
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING/.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

COLD AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AS A ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE AND
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO START THE
PERIOD BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS
AROUND -23C) AND REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT IS THERE.
UNFORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATIONS OF GAPS IN THE ICE. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...DECENT AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE PRESENT
OFF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THAT
INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN (MAINLY GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES).
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WERE OBSCURING THE ABILITY TO SEE THE ICE COVER
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL MAKE SOME ASSUMPTIONS.
THINK AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE OPENED
UP BASED OFF SATELLITE YESTERDAY EVENING...SO WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THAT. THAT WOULD GENERALLY AFFECT
ALGER COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS START TO
BACK AND PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING BY FRIDAY EVENING (ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH WILL DIMINISH WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TOWARDS -17C). WILL
KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 5KFT AND THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING ABOVE THE DGZ AND
PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. ONE FINAL NOTE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS TURNING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL HAVE THE POPS SHIFT MORE INTO THE
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS (IRONWOOD AND MARQUETTE COUNTY) DURING THAT
TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
AND ASSISTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA DURING THE
SAT NIGHT TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...LARGELY
JUST BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE WEEK AND LEAD TO A DRY START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS DEPENDING ON THE WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE. WHERE CLOUDS OCCUR...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO UNDER LIGHT WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THINK THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THAT MAY HOLD OFF THE DROP FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS INITIALLY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...DID
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO. AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...HAVE SHOWN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TO THE 20S BY
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW FLOW TO THE E OF HI PRES IN THE CNDN
PRAIRIES PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GRT LKS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THE SUBSIDING WINDS LESSEN THE BLSN...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WHERE THE EXPECTED NW FLOW UPSLOPES INTO
THE MORE EXPOSED IWD LOCATION THAT IS DOWNWIND OF A BIT MORE OPEN
WATER...BUT DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
ON MOST OF LK SUP THAT WL LIMIT THE MOISTENING OF THE INCOMING DRY
AIR WL RESTRICT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUILDING A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL BE THE
TREND TODAY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
AND SHIFTING ICE COVER PREVENTING LARGE AREAS OF OPEN WATER...AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WAVES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF



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