Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S.  A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.

QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC


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