Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 012016
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF EXTENDING
FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ARE EMBEDDED
IN THIS TROF THAT WL BE OF CONCERN FOR THE FCST. THE FIRST IS MOVING
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER CLD
TOPS ARE CONFINED TO ONTARIO...SOME LOCATIONS IN MN WITHIN THE
RELATIVELY POORLY DEFINED COMMA TAIL ARE PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
SN/FLURRIES. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE PCPN/ENHANCED CLDS IS
ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280K SFC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR PER THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS.
MID CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV HAVE INVADED THE CWA...LIMITING
THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP IN THE STEADY SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF MOVING THRU MN. SOME LIGHT SN HAS ALSO
DVLPD OVER THE ERN CWA WITH SSW FLOW OFF LK MI. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A SECOND SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD FM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT SN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TWO SHRTWVS AS WELL AS LES POTENTIAL TNGT IN THE CAA FOLLOWING THESE
DISTURBANCES.

TODAY...FIRST SHRTWV IS FCST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN LK SUP THIS
MRNG. MAINTAINED SOME LO CHC POPS THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE W AND N
PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK AND AREA OF COLDER CLD
TOPS/HIER H85-5 RH. THERE WL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME SN THIS AFTN
OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME SHARPER
PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV WL
ARRIVE COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE SFC TROF. ALTHOUGH WRN LK SUP REMAINS
MOSTLY ICE COVERED...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEPER MSTR ACCOMPANYING THE
SECOND SHRTWV AND COLDER AIR /H85 TEMPS FALLING NEAR -16C BY 00Z
MON/ IN THE WNW H925 FLOW BEHIND THE TROF WL BRING ABOUT A CHC FOR
SOME SN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W AS WELL. WITH A SW
VEERING W FLOW DVLPG THIS AFTN...EXPECT THE HIEST MAX TEMPS IN THE
25 TO 30 RANGE OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREA OF THE CENTRAL...WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL.

TNGT...NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR...WITH TEMPS WITHIN TRAILING H85
THERMAL TROF FCST AS LO AS -18C...FOLLOWING THE EXITING SFC TROF WL
RESULT IN SOME LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS
DESPITE THE OVERALL ICE COVER. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SN SHOWERS WL
BE E OF MARQUETTE WITH A LONGER FETCH LENGTH OVER THE MAINLY ICE
COVERED LK. ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES RDG
MOVING INTO MN AND SHARPLY LOWERING INVRN AOB 3K FT AGL ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING VIGOROUS DNVA/06Z-12Z H5 HGT
RISES UP TO 100M AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS SHOULD END THE LES
OVER THE W LATE. LLVL DRYING/CLRG WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP AT LEAST
CLOSE TO ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR W CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SFC HI
PRES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STEADY WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE...

PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A
COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL
BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS
REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING
TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND
H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE
LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH
LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL
SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW
SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT
THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR
NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON
INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON
EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS
GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPF FM GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON
15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS.

PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY
EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR
/H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR.
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO
-20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF
8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH
ICE COVERAGE...SCT POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING
AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN
ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR
SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT
REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE
OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY
FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS
ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT
DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER
LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FM GFS AND
ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST
RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SFC LOW PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED -SHSN/MVFR CIGS WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT KCMX...A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VIS APPEAR LIKELY
THRU 19Z TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND TROF SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DESPITE A MOSTLY
ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. RECENT SW WINDS MAY HAVE OPENED UP AN
AREA OF WATER E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IF SO...SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHSH MAY OCCUR AT KIWD THIS EVENING UNDER LOW-LEVEL
WNW FLOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL
BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.