Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172359
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

...High swim risk along Lk Superior in Alger county this evening and
patchy frost late tonight interior west...

Main shortwave trough remains well to the north along with stronger
sfc low. Cold front that moved through this morning and brought the
rain and some thunderstorms late last night reaches the lower Great
Lakes on Monday while high pressure over the plains builds across
the Upper Great Lakes. Gusty northwest winds this aftn (leading to a
high swim risk on Lk Superior beaches of Alger county) will diminish
as the high moves closer tonight and with pwats down to 0.35 inches
reflecting a very dry airmass, expect strong radiational cooling for
interior areas overnight. Lows in the favored cold spots could drop
to or just above freezing so those with any sensitive plants should
cover those or bring those in if possible. High clouds increase late
tonight so that should keep far west from seeing temps drop off that
low.

On Monday, southwest flow aloft will bring a shortwave across the
western Great Lakes region by Monday aftn. Should see a few showers
spread into the western half of the forecast area in the aftn but no
thunder is expected. After the stretch of recent late summer
weather, temps on Monday will be back down to around normal with mid
60s most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Nothing too concerning in the long term at this point. The only
thing to not hazard wise is that there could be some stronger storms
on Wednesday.

A shortwave will bring some rain showers Mon night, leaving partly
to mostly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures for Tuesday.

A shortwave moving NW of the CWA will bring a cold front across the
area late Tue night possibly into Wed night. Could have enough
instability (1,000-1,500 J/kg) and shear (around 30kts) for some
stronger storms, depending on timing.

Wed starts the return of above normal temps that will last through
the weekend. Temps will be 5-15 degrees above normal with the
warmest day being Fri with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Plenty of uncertainty with precip over the weekend as models
disagree on the position of stalled frontal boundary.

Did not make any changes to blended initialization.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 757 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with high
pressure and dry air building into the region. However, a period of
shallow fog is expected that should drop vsby into the MVFR range
at KSAW toward daybreak.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Winds of 20-30 kts will diminish to under 20kt from w to e tonight
as sfc high pres builds into the Upper Great Lakes. With high pres
lingering on Mon, winds should be mostly under 15kt. Winds should be
under 20kt on Tue, then stronger southerly winds of 20-25kt, even up
to 30kt over eastern Lake Superior, are possible on Wed as sfc trof
moves toward the Upper Lakes. Winds will drop off to under 20kt on
Thu.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA



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