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000
FXUS63 KMQT 031007
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS ON THE WAY TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW ONTARIO PASSING THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING...SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO MN/IA WILL BEGIN
TO RIDGE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS CALM BY LATE TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR OVER REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
TO JUST 15-20PCT OF NORMAL WILL AID IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS PER PREVIOUS FCST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON GENERALLY
BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GEM TEMPS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND -30F...BUT OVERALL...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE -10 TO -25F RANGE. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO
FALL TO AROUND -35F. LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C
BY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS FROM THE FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHSN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
JUST CASE SOME WEAK LES BANDS FORM IN ISOLATED CRACKS OF MOSTLY
ICE-COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. MVFR
VSBY/CIG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW THAN SITES FARTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER AFT
04/06Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20KT TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROF AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-25KT MON AS A TROF
SWINGS THRU NRN ONTARIO. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FOR MON
NIGHT THRU WED WILL RESULT IN WINDS UNDER 20KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE W.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS