Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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656
FXUS63 KMQT 022059
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.

FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.

LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.

WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.

BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.

FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>007-009-084-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON



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