Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191859
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
259 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

High pressure situated over much of Wisconsin this afternoon led to
clear skies through much of the day allowing temperatures to climb
into 70s and a few 80s across the south central. Upstream of the
area, a complex of thunderstorms moving across the northern Plains
has continued to push southeast into southern Minnesota and Iowa.

The models are really struggling to handle the ongoing convection to
our southwest as convection across the northern Plains continues to
drop southeast towards the Corn Belt. With the better moisture
oriented west to east just ahead of this complex of storms, as the
complex continues to grow upscale this afternoon expect the return
of the better moisture this far north to be reduced. There will
still be a chance for showers and storms tonight into Thursday
morning, especially across the southern portions of Upper Michigan,
as a weak shortwave moves across the area and the right entrance
region of the upper-level jet will track across the area. Light to
at times moderate rain may fall at times, but overall do not expect
rainfall accumulations like we saw yesterday.

Thursday morning, lingering showers across the south central portions
of the area will continue to push off to the southeast as cooler air
begins to filter southeast across Upper Michigan and a weak surface
trough swings through the area. Cloud cover will gradually thin, but
do expect diurnal clouds to hold on through much of the day with the
above mentioned cooler air aloft. Temperature wise, it should feel
very pleasant with seasonable temperatures. South central portions
of the area will see the warmest temperatures with good downslope,
northerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 507 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

Models suggest that a brief transition to zonal flow atop a
mid/upper level ridge over the lower MS valley will give way to
some amplification this weekend as the ridge shifts westward
favoring nw flow into the Great Lakes. Temps will remain at or
above normal into the weekend and then drop below normal from Sun-
Tue.

Thursday, any lingering shra brushing mainly the srn cwa associated
with the shrtwv and area of convection sliding through WI will
depart during the morning. With plenty of afternoon sunshine, temps
will climb into the mid and upper 70s near the Great Lakes to the
lower 80s inland.

Friday, the main sfc-850 mb front remains far enough to the south so
that the next stronger shortwave and associated area of convection
should remain over WI with only lighter pcpn on the nrn fringe
possibly brushing the the srn cwa from the late afternoon into the
evening.

Sat-Sun, as the mid/upper level flow becomes more northwesterly, a
stronger shortwave trough is expected to drop from srn Manitoba into
the nrn Great Lakes. The ECMWF remained slightly faster with this
feature compared to the GFS and especially the GEM.
Although there is still some timing uncertainty, the initial band of
showers with WAA and 700-300mb qvector conv ahead of the shrtwv is
expected to move in from the west from Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. Shower chances will persist through most of Sunday
into Sunday night until the shrtwv slides off to the east with some
lingering light wrap-around pcpn possible into early Monday.

Mon-Tue, although the slower GFS/GEM would keep some light pcpn
going, model trends and the ECMWF suggest that mainly dry weather
will prevail. High pressure with cooler dry air will build into the
region with pleasant conditions. Highs will range from the upper 60s
north to the lower 70s south Monday with slightly warmer conditions
Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

Confidence in precipitation and lower ceilings reaching KSAW/KIWD
late tonight is not high right now as an large complex of storms is
progged to develop well south of the area and should rob the area
of deeper moisture this far north. Therefore, have opted to not
go terribly low in ceilings and only include mentions of VCSH for
now. If any precipitation does make it into the area, KIWD/KSAW
will have the highest likelihood of seeing rain showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 259 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

20 knots winds ahead of a cold front progged to push east across the
lake overnight will move west to east across the lake, then winds
will become southwesterly into Thursday morning/afternoon at 10 to
20 knots. Friday through the weekend and into early next week, winds
will generally remain around or under 15 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...Ritzman


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