Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290014
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
814 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE STEADILY
MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER AT 18Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 40-45 MPH N OF HOUGHTON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEE SOCIAL MEDIA AND SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ON FURTHER DETAILS ON THE WIND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT PCPN HAS CHANGED
TO SNOW OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.  THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C BY 12Z WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE /WITH SOME INTERIOR SPOTS
SEEING THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPPING BELOW 500 FT/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. IN
FACT...SOME PLACES BY WED MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR WEST HALF MAY SEE
A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH ROADS SHOULD NOT BE
IMPACTED WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO THE MID 30S.

THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE
EAST WED MORNING...LEADING TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH INVERSIONS RATHER LOW
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -6C...EXPECT ANY LAKE EFFECT
PCPN TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE WED AFTN. AS SUCH...WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY
POPS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST IN THE MORNING BECOMING SMALL CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTN. IN THE WEST...WILL END ANY POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF MANY PLACES SEE SOME
BROKEN AREAS OF SUNSHINE WED AFTN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WILL BE A
CHILLY DAY THOUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY NW FLOW WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT 500MB...AS A 500MB
LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND E CANADA. LIGHT
WINDS...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES /STILL ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL/ ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PLEASANT COMPARED TO THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY FCST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM N MANITOBA
THROUGH S HUDSON BAY AND N QUEBEC. THE TROUGH WILL SINK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT/S GETTING TO THAT
TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE CAN START UTILIZING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PARAMETER AGAIN FOR THE VARIOUS FCST MODELS. OFF THE 28/12Z GFS IT
TOPS OUT OVER 1.7 OVER THE FAR W AND KEWEENAW PENINUSLA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS N CENTRAL UPPER MI BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY COMING
TO AN END OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM
N-S THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF JUST OVER A TRACE UP TO
3-4IN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
COOL/HIGHER ELEVATION OF W AND N CENTRAL UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS...AS A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS. KEPT THE MENTION OF
SNOW IN THE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS. BEACH
EROSION ISSUES...AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN AREA GHOSTS AND
GOBLINS MAY BE OUT AND ABOUT...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
FREEZING AND DIMINISHING N WINDS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING...AS THE SFC LOW SINKS SE ACROSS LOWER
MI.

IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E COAST...A STRONG
RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE SUNDAY PERIOD W AND CENTRAL IS LIKELY A BIT
OVERDONE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND DEPARTING LOW PRES WILL WORK TO
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCNL -SHRA AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT. EVEN
AT KSAW...EXPECT SOME -SHRA THOUGH CONDITIONS INITIALLY SHOULD BE
VFR. CIGS AT KSAW MAY FALL TO MVFR BEFORE 06Z...BUT MORE LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW WITH PASSAGE OF A SFC
TROF. AHEAD OF THE TROF...W WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX
WHERE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 30KT. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES THRU THE
NIGHT...-SHRA MAY BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR WED AFTN WITH GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHORELINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH TO 20 TO
30 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON WED BEFORE A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST INTO THE UPPER MS VLY THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR N-NE GALE FORCE GUSTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRI MORNING BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-
     240>244-263>266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD






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