Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 161934
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WHICH HAS SUPPORTED A CLUSTER OF SHRA
ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NW ONTARIO AS NOTED ON CANADIAN
RADAR MOSIAC. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
HAVE ALLOWED FOR MIN TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BLO THE FREEZING MARK FOR
MANY OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD SPOT LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND ASSOC 900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACHING UPPER 60S FOR A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER NCNTRL
UPPER MI IN DEVELOPING WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO MAINLY THE NW AND ERN
CWA BY LATE EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF
THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING/Q-VECT CONV TO BE OVER NW AND ERN
CWA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOC 100+ KT 3H JET MAX MOVING INTO
WRN QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER
MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR SURGING
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND SUNSET AND SET THE U.P. UP FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH
INLAND FROST. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...THE FRONT SAGS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN SHOWN 24HRS AGO...WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR U.P. TO EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LOWS AROUND FREEZING OVER THE
INTERIOR (COLDEST EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER). WITH THOSE LOW
TEMP VALUES...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE
ARE AND MAY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR SOME OF THE EASTERN AREAS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVER
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHWEST CWA
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 50S.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
COME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON SOME DETAILS (TO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE PHASING OF THREE WAVES JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA)...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA OF BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY (ALONG WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS) AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS AND PUSHES
IT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GEM DOESN/T AGREE WITH THIS IDEA...FEEL THAT IT IS
THE WAY TO TREND THE FORECAST SINCE THE 12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE CONSISTENT IDEA IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
LATE ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE SYSTEM...WHICH LARGELY
AFFECTS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
END CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN...AS COLDER AIR WRAPS SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PROBABLY
SOME BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH 850MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY
INTO SUDNAY NIGHT (ANYWHERE FROM -1C TO 4C)...BUT WITH THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BUOYS ONLY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S (AROUND 7-8C)...NOT SURE THE DELTA-T VALUE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ENHANCEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A TREND
BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL
DROP S INTO PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AS
SUBTLE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESE ALONG FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT IS EXPECTED THAT LOW CLOUDS AND BAND OF RAIN
THAT WILL DEVELOP N OF FRONT WILL PASS JUST N OF KCMX LATE TONIGHT.
AS THE VERY WEAK SFC LOW PASSES WED MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
S...BRINGING LOW MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. IFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW WHICH WILL SEE A MORE DIRECT
UPSLOPE WIND AFTER FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

EXPECT WSW WINDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRONT MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED
INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRES TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS





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