Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 110821
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

A QUIET DAY ACROSS UPPER MI WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST HALF
ON FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL BOTH SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL ND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
ALBERTA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CWA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST WAVE
OVERNIGHT AS MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTHING BESIDE SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT
OUTRUNS BETTER DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE SFC HIGH
WILL LIMIT COOLING ACROSS THE WEST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS FOR THE EAST HALF...A PERIOD OF DECENT COOLING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AS A WEAK EXTENSION
OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 FAR WEST.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A PATCH OF
SHOWERY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN UPPER MI AROUND 12Z FRIDAY ON
THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H8 TO H7 FGEN. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT...AS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD OUTRUN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND TRACK
INTO DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 875HPA. THIS SHOULD
KEEP A DECENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FINALLY ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY WAY OF THE
RIGHT EXIT OF A 90KT 250HPA JET STREAK. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE JET AND TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
WEST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS.

FINALLY...30 TO 40KT WINDS BETWEEN 900 AND 850HPA MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT SFC WIND FORECAST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL MIXING...BUT
GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SSW DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKE FORECASTING DIFFICULT.

FOR SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL
BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT AND LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVE
FARTHER INTO UPPER MI. THINK THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NWRN UPPER MI. AM MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI AS MODELS SHOW A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING S OF THE CWA SOMETIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST N WITH SHOWING THE
COMPLEX SKIRTING THE SERN CWA. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH IN KEEPING THE COMPLEX
FARTHER S. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE COMPLEX /IF
IT FORMS/...CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT DEVELOP FARTHER N OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. IF CONVECTION TO THE S IS MORE
MINIMAL...CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA
WHERE CAPE VALUES MAY EVEN RISE TO NEAR 1000J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUN...WITH MODEL VARIABILITY
WITH THE TIMING OF THAT FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE
IT PASSING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT ALLOW MUCH TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
THINK THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
MAINLY ERN UPPER MI...WHERE AT LEAST SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR BEFORE
THE FRONT...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THAT FRONT...PASSES
THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES PUSH S THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE FRONT.

BY 12Z MON...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE NEAR
INL. THE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT SE AND ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA INTO
TUE...AND SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY WED AT THE LATEST...WITH THE GFS
MOVING IT OUT FAR FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH. AS THAT UPPER
LOW MOVES IN ON MON...THE COLD CORE BEING OVERHEAD OR NEARBY
COMBINED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON MON INTO TUE.

WITH HOW ANOMALOUSLY STRONG THE LOW WILL BE...THE BIG STORY IN THE
LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST ON TUE AT
4-5C...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S /OR POSSIBLE
NOT EVEN REACHING 50/ OVER NRN UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
OVER SCENTRAL UPPER MI. RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE AT NWS
MARQUETTE IS DEGREES...WHICH QUITE LIKELY WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT
WE SEE ON TUE. IN FACT THE COLDEST HIGH TEMP FOR THE MONTH OF JULY
IS 51...AND THAT IS NOT EVEN OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO
TIE OR BREAK. ALTHOUGH TEMPS DO WARM WED AND THU...THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD AS
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...INCREASED WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT KIWD/KCMX OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY TO KIWD/KCMX THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT AT
THIS POINT...CONDITIONS AREN`T EXPECTED TO FALL BLO VFR. BUILDING
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 20KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT
MAY LEAD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING AT KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF PCPN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...SO ONLY
A VCNTY SHRA MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LIGHT SW TO W WINDS
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER






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