Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 270718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRYING BEGAN ON TUE AFTN AND THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE TODAY. STRONG
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
RIDGE FM THE GREAT LAKES TO SCNTRL CANADA WILL ALLOW HUDSON BAY HIGH
TO PERSIST WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. NEGATIVE
TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS OVER
PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL CONTRACT
TO A MORE CLOSED OFF LOW VCNTY OF IOWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. CIRRUS
BLOWING OFF THE WIDESPREAD TSRA MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN BUT
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND DECAYING SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS MAY GUST OVER 20 MPH MAINLY WEST AND SCNTRL.

COOLEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPS INLAND AND ALSO CLOSER TO LK
MICHIGAN WILL REACH LOW TO MID 50S. VERY DRY AIRMASS IS TIED TO
THIS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. DWPNTS ON TUE FELL INTO THE TEENS
INLAND EVEN WITH MOST AREAS SEEING OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN LESS THAN 24
HR PRIOR. LOOKING EVEN DRIER TODAY. DWPNTS ON TUE AFTN IN THE SOURCE
AIRMASS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR FELL INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. SOME
AREAS OF CWA SHOULD DROP TO SIMILAR VALUES TODAY. RESULT WILL BE MIN
RH VALUES THIS AFTN DOWN TO 15-20 PCT. DESPITE THESE DRY CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...STILL PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING AFFECTS ON THE FINE FUELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURRED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AS UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN OVER SOUTHERN CWA. ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...COLDEST INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WX
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL DECAY WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.
GIVEN WEAKENING FORCING...DEEP DRY AIR...AND A NARROW MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. WHILE
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...HAVE OPTED TO
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL.
OTHERWISE...JUST MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

THE PATTERN BASICALLY REPEATS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TO A
DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...MEANING ALL GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS AMIDST SLIGHTLY MODERATING
TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN AT KIWD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

ENE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS S THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. E TO NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH SAT TO THE S OF PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



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