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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA...WITH FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
500MB SHORT WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF 16Z THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER NEAR THIS FEATURE.

MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER TONIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
SHOWN BY OVERLAYING 1000-500MB RH/OMEGA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
OVER THE EAST...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT MORE...INTO THE LOW
30S...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE
AS EXTENSIVE ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HOWEVER...WITH IRONWOOD BEING NEAR
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...NEAR THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALL LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...20 KNOTS OR LESS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC