Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
341 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

Finally some dry weather in the short-term forecast after showers
end over the far eastern U.P. late this afternoon into this evening.

As the shortwave that brought all of the rain over the past 24 hours
shifts east of the U.P., heights will begin to rise from west to
east. This ridging aloft along with a surface high building into the
Upper Great Lakes region, will allow the precipitation to come to an
end and allow for clear skies across the area. This will allow
temperatures to cool off tonight, with many locations inland cooling
to the low 40s tonight. Actually, with ideal radiational cooling,
its not out of the question that a few of the typically cooler
locations may see a few upper 30 degree readings. The dry weather
and clear skies will continue into Tuesday; however, there is a very
small chance that some isolated rain showers may develop over the
eastern U.P. during afternoon heating/lake breeze boundaries. The
increased sunshine will help temperatures to rebound closer to
normal for this time of year with many locations warming into the
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

An active pattern with multiple waves traversing the area will keep
rain chances in the forecast through at least the weekend with
temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The best chance
for widespread moderate to heavy rain will be Wednesday into
Thursday, then precipitation chances will be periodic into early
next week. Early next week, temperatures will gradually return to
near normal.

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to develop on
Wednesday and push east across Upper Michigan into Thursday morning
as low pressure tracks across the area. Expect the rain showers to
move into western portions of Upper Michigan during the late
morning/early afternoon hours on Wednesday, and then gradually push
east across the central and east into the afternoon and evening
hours. With a warm, moisture rich air mass overhead, PWATs will
increase to around 1.5+ inches, along with deepening of the warm
cloud depth. These ingredients, coupled with increased lift along
the warm front as it lifts across the area will allow for high
rainfall rates. Right now, the highest rainfall totals are expected
to be across the central and east, where 1-2`` of rain looks
possible. There may be some isolated thunder embedded within the
widespread rain, but the threat for any severe thunderstorms will
remain well south of the area. Into early Thursday morning, as
moisture transport lifts northeast into Ontario, the threat for
heavy rain will wave, but with upper-level energy will still linger
overhead, so cannot rule out scattered showers through the day on
Thursday, but depending on the speed of the wave exiting the area
and track of the surface low, things could dry out a bit sooner than
currently reflected on Thursday. Thankfully, the band of moderate to
heavy rain looks to remain fairly progressive as it moves across the
area. However, given the antecedent wet conditions across the area,
and rivers and their respective tributaries running high flooding
may still be an issues in some locations, especially those that
see the highest rainfall rates.

Friday through the weekend, a number of upper-level waves are
progged to move across the Great Lakes region bringing additional
chances for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. With a
leading shortwave lifting north out of the middle Mississippi Valley
and up into the western Great Lakes Friday afternoon, expect showers
to become a bit more widespread. Progressing into Saturday, a more
potent upper-level wave will pivot across Upper Michigan and allow
precipitation chances to linger through the day on Saturday and into
Sunday. Right now, it certainly looks like the end of the weekend
will be much drier than the beginning.

Early next week, there may be a slight chance for rain showers as
another shortwave digs south across the area, but behind this
exiting wave it looks like we may start to dry out and warm up a
bit. By Monday afternoon/evening, the GFS and ECMWF have increasing
large-scale subsidence across the area with surface high pressure
moving overhead. Also, with ridging progged to build across the
Plains, this may allow the jet stream to shift a bit further north
and the return of more seasonable weather.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

All TAF sites will be VFR through the period as dry air moves in.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 355 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

Winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected to continue through the first
half of next week as the pressure gradient decreases and high
pressure builds into the area. Towards the middle of the week, winds
will start to increase to around 20 to 25 knots as a low pressure
system lifts across the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will then decrease
to around or less than 15 knots towards the end of the week and next
weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes once again.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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