Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 081935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW...ASSISTED BY THE 100-115KT 250MB JET NOSING
IN ACROSS LAKE MI. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH 0.5 TO 2.5IN SHOWING UP OFF THE LATEST RADAR SCANS. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY EXIT E THROUGH THE MORNING.

AS A CONTRAST TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THAT WERE REALIZED ON
MONDAY...60S WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW 50S RIGHT ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR DESPITE THE EARLY JULY SUN. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE
NW OFF MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AN AVERAGE
OF 6C BY THE END OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS/ ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS FCST...WITH TOTALS AROUND 0.10IN OR
LESS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT JET DYNAMICS OR CAPE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OCCURRING THIS TIME
LAST WEEK. TROUGHING TO START THE WEEK THEN RELAXING HEIGHTS MORE
ZONAL FLOW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEEMS THIS PATTERN CHANGES
BACK TO TROUGHING QUICKER THOUGH WITH ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH TRENDING BACK
TO TROUGHING BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AS THE FLOW GOES ZONAL...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MAIN COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DPROG/DT...SEEING HOW THE MODELS ARE CHANGING OVER THEIR
RECENT RUNS...INDICATES STRONG CONSISTENCY FM THE MODELS IN MASS
FIELDS /MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MSLP/ THROUGH SATURDAY.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS COOLEST ON WED NIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 50 PCT OF NORMAL
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTERIOR MAY SEE LOWS
AROUND 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AROUND
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH ONLY LOCAL COOLING NEAR IMMEDIATE
GREAT LAKES SHORES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO
WORK ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF OREGON SLIDES ACROSS
ON FRIDAY. STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS MANTIOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS SPLIT IN TWO AREAS...STRONGEST
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT
ELEVATED LAGS BOTH WAVES SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS LATER THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL WITH
200-400J/KG OF 1-6KM MUCAPE AS GREATEST MLCAPE AND 1-6KM MUCAPE
SETTLES MORE SOUTH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAN EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE UP TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE RISK DOES
APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40+ KTS BY SATURDAY AFTN. 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES MORE MLCAPE THAN EARLIER RUNS...CENTERED OVER CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN. LOOKS AS IF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. AS LONG AS THE SHRA/TSRA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
COOLING/STABILIZING AFFECTS ARE OUT OF THE WAY IN TIME...COULD SEE
ISOLD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTN
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. H7 WINDS ARE MORE WESTERLY. ATTM BASED
ON EXPECTED POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND A MORE WEST TO EAST MEAN
STORM MOTION...LOOKS LIKE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
OVER SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WHATEVER SHRA/TSRA ARE AROUND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD DIMINISH/END LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE JUMPY SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF EACH MODEL IS HEADING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING/COOLER WEATHER.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE
ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS OF GEM-NH STILL HANGING ON TO THIS IDEA WHILE 06Z GFS
WAS THE FIRST GFS RUN SINCE JULY 7/12Z TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLN. 12Z GFS
DOES NOT HAVE IT AGAIN. ECMWF SHOWED STRONGER LOW ON THE JULY 6/12Z
RUN...BUT HAS SINCE BACKED AWAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TREND IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A RETURN TO
TROUGHING AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS...LIKELY OVER 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CORE OF COOLEST AIR AT H85 OVER
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 0C ON THE ECMWF AND AROUND
+2C ON THE GFS ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER SETTLES ACROSS GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING BLO +5C AND PLENTY OF
H85-H7 MOISTURE. SFC LOW FORECAST TO BE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR REGION...
SO NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY COOL. RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MID JULY ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT SOME
VALUES IN JULY ARE EVEN IN THE LOWER 50S. MAY SEE SOME TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK COME CLOSE TO THESE LOWER READINGS. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. CHANCES OF SEEING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE
PATTERN PRETTY HIGH...SO THAT WOULD ONLY HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE. PROBABLY GOES WITHOUT SAYING...BUT NO REAL STRETCHES OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

DESPITE HIGH SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS (IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS) HAVE PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
STILL EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO WORK AT
RAISING CIGS FROM THE CLOUD DECK EDGES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR
BY LATE AFTN. BEING FARTHEST FROM CLOUD BREAKS PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DUE TO CHILLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...KSAW WILL
SEE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KSAW
WILL IMPROVE SLOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WED. DISTURBANCE
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX LATE
THIS EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES
LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD SEE DENSE FOG AT TIMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA








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