Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 130530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
130 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

Nam shows a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes and another
over the northern plains this morning. This trough moves into the
upper Great Lakes late on Sun. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves
into the western cwa by 00z Mon with some moisture moving in then as
well. With this in mind and with lake breeze convergence in the
afternoon, slight chance pops are warranted in lake breeze
convergence zones and also in the far west with peak diurnal
heating. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast
overall. Did lower temps a bit tonight to mos guidance which was the
coldest guidance due to clear skies, light wind s which sets up
ideal radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

The main forecast concern next week will be chances for showers and
perhaps a few rumbles of thunder early in the week, then the
attention turns towards a low pressure system progged to develop in
the lee of the Rockies and track across the Great Lakes region later
in the week.

Sunday night, as we lose diurnal heating the coverage and intensity
of any lingering convection will wane. Early Monday morning through
late Monday night, models are fairly consistent with weak warm air
advection lifting into the upper Great Lakes region ahead of a
digging shortwave. This will allow chances for showers to return at
least to the southern portions of Upper Michigan. Right now there is
quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the warm front boundary
will get, along with it`s better, deeper moisture. Given the
uncertainty in moisture return, confidence isn`t high in regards to
whether or not we will hear widespread thunder. However, if the
surface trough can lift this far north, along with moisture pooling
along lake breezes, cannot rule out some isolated rumbles of thunder
at this time.

Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, the above mentioned shortwave
will continue to dig across the eastern Great Lakes region with
height rises and surface ridging taking over across the region.
Therefore, expect the return of sunshine and warmer temperatures. As
the attention turns to the aforementioned low pressure system
progged to lifts across the region Wednesday through Thursday,
confidence remains low in regards to the overall impacts from this
system as the track, timing, and intensity of the system vary across
the medium range models. That being said, chances will increase
during this time period for measurable precipitation as the system
pushes across the region. The end of next week and weekend chances
for showers will linger as upper-level troughing is progged to
remain across the upper Great Lakes.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Some patchy ground fog with variable vsby into the IFR range is
expected at KIWD overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
at the TAF sites through the period. Isold afternoon tsra may be
possible over north central Upper Michigan near lake breeze
boundaries but the probability is too low for mention in the TAF at
this time.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

Winds will remain at 20 knots or less through the remainder of the
weekend and through much of next week. The strongest winds of 15 to
25 knots will occur late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front
approaches Lake Superior from the west.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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