Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 020721
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.

TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.

THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRI THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS IS REPLACED
BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. NAM
HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA ON FRI
WHICH REMAINS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING...SO HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FRI AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD LAST
INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DID CONTINUE DRY FOR THE 4TH AS DIEING COLD FRONT IS OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THEN.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON MON. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MON AND LINGERS INTO WED
AS IT BROADENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE SFC COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVING
LIKELY POPS FOR THEN CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC


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