Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS


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