Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

No major weather impacts expected in the short-term portion of the

Tonight: A weak cold front/surface trough will slide across the west
half of the U.P. this evening and weaken further as it shifts across
the rest of the area tonight. The main focus for any rain showers
will be along and just ahead of the front, especially in the
evening. There may be just enough elevated instability to give a few
rumbls of thunder. Generally, any shower and thunderstorm activity
will diminish in both coverage and intensity as daytime heating
diminishes and the weak front begins to wash out. Drier mid-level
air will move in on the back side of the front, which may allow for
some fog development tonight in areas that receive light rain and
where clouds decrease.

Saturday: A quick moving upper-level 500mb ridge will slide across
the U.P. through early afternoon before the ridge axis slides east
of the area by mid afternoon. This will likely give sunny to partly
sunny skies across the area through much of the morning  hours. Once
the ridge slides to the east of the area, moisture will begin to
flow into the U.P. once again as broad troughing slides into the
area from the west. This broad troughing is associated with a broad
closed upper low and surface low over Manitoba. Models are showing a
weak shortwave sliding into the are during the mid to late afternoon
hours, which may end up giving some scattered rain showers over the
south central U.P. and portions of the eastern U.P.; however, the
rain showers should remain light. High temperatures will remain
near to slightly above normal with highs running in the upper 60s
to around 70 for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

A slowly progressive but amplified pattern will prevail through
next week with a mid/upper level low/trough over Manitoba
gradually moving through northern Ontario and the northern Great
Lakes into the northeast CONUS. Expect below normal temps through
next week with the best rain chances Sunday diminishing from Mon
into Tue.

Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave trough moving through MN to
Upper Michigan will bring an increase in shra coverage, especially
into Sunday morning. With PWAT values to around 1.2 inches, and
the potential a band of moderate to strong mid level fgen with the
feature, heavier rain to around an inch may be possible mainly
over central Upper Michigan. However, there is lower confidence
with the location/timing of this feature. MUCAPE values into the
500-1000 J/kg with steepening mid level lapse rates could also
support a few tsra.

Sunday night into Wednesday, As the mid level low drops into the
northern Great Lakes, periods of at least sct shra will continue
aided by weaker shrtwvs near the mid level low. There may still be
some instability, but will be low enough for only minimal tsra
chances. Mostly cloudy conditions will keep highs mainly in the
mid 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 40s.

Thursday-Friday, mainly dry weather is expected as the mid level
trough shifts to the ne CONUS and sfc high pressure builds into the
region. Highs will climb mainly into the 60s. Winds will be weak
enough for prominent lake breezes and cooler conditions along the
Great Lakes.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

VFR conditions will likely prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst
period. However, since some rainfall occurred at KSAW during the
evening, it`s possible fog could develop overnight, especially if
clouds clear out. Confidence is low for the fog to develop, so no
mention was included in this fcst. Today, dissipating sfc trof
reaching central Upper MI combined with lake breeze development
should result in some shra developing around KSAW in the aftn. Not
out of the question that a rumble of thunder could occur as well.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Through the weekend, winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected across
Lake Superior. Early next week, winds will increase to around 20
knots as an area of low pressure is progged to dig across portions
of the Upper Great Lakes.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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