Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 201735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1235 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S. this
morning and a trough off the Pacific NW coast and another in the
Canadian Rockies. This trough in the Canadian Rockies digs quickly
southeast into the northern plains tonight and is poised to move
into the upper Great Lakes. Did not make too many changes to the
going forecast overall and looks pretty quiet as lake effect snow
ends over the east and starts up late tonight again as colder air
comes in late. Will have filtered sunshine through high clouds today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

A SFC low NE of the CWA Tue morning will already have dragged a cold
front across the CWA by 12Z Tue, with a secondary trough/front and
shortwave moving through late morning and early afternoon Tue. A
second shortwave crosses the area late Tue into early Tue night.
850mb temps around -8C at 12Z Tue will drop to -15C by Tue afternoon
and stay that cold through Tue night. Winds will be gusty out of the
NW, with gusts to 40-45mph along the Lake Superior shore and up to
30mph elsewhere.

Moderate LES is expected to develop Tue morning in the NW winds
snowbelts and continue through Tue night before warming temps and
winds becoming W to SW will diminish LES on Wed. Heaviest snow
should be with the secondary front/trough/shortwave from late Tue
morning into Tue afternoon. Another uptick in LES can be expected
with the second shortwave. Dry air looks to limit total
accumulations some with forecast amounts generally of 2-5" in NW
snowbelts Tue into Wed. Could see some advisories issued, if

Looks like a decent shot of seeing over much of the area on Friday
as a low moves N of the area. On the back side of the system Sat
into Sun, which would lead to light to moderate LES in the NW wind

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites before
MVFR ceilings and visibilities arrive with lake effect snow showers
overnight through Tuesday, especially at CMX. Strong W winds this
evening will veer NW overnight, with gusts over 35kts possible at
CMX Tuesday. If low-level mixing is not sufficient enough to produce
gusty winds at the surface at all sites, LLWS will be prevalent this
evening into Tuesday morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 248 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

An area of low pressure will approach, then move through the area
tonight through Tuesday giving a period of southwest gales tonight
before shifting to northwest gales Tuesday into Tuesday night. The
next chance of seeing near-gale winds will be Friday into Saturday;
otherwise, winds are generally expected to be in the 15 to 25 knot

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ248>251-267.

  Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ265-266.

  Gale Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 5 PM EST
     /4 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162-240>242-263.

  Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday for

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for



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