Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 060900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED AND ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. DO SEE VERY LIGHT PRECIP ON RADAR OVER NCENTRAL
MN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NWRN MN...BUT NO
PRECIP OBSERVED BY SFC OBS YET. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OVER
THE E AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER THERE AND SW FLOW OFF
LAKE MI SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...THE
KEWEENAW MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE SW
WINDS. EXPECT TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A HALF INCH OR
LESS...GREATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EAST. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING A 1008MB SFC LOW TO NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR (NEAR ISLE
ROYALE) BY 12Z SAT. SNOW WILL HAVE TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE OBSERVED OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
BY 12Z SAT. HAVE JUST OVER AN INCH OF SNOW FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER
HARBOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE E THROUGH 12Z SAT. MOST OF THIS
SNOW SHOULD FALL IN 2-3 HOURS PRIOR TO 12Z. PRECIP PROGRESSES E
AFTER 12Z (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION). TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...WARMEST W.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH...
CAUSING THE ERN TROF AMPLITUDE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. THESE CHANGES
WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE...ALLOWING
PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR UPPER MI...THIS MEANS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
RETREATING ARCTIC AIR THRU THE WEEKEND...AND THEN NEXT WEEK...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SRN CANADA IN THE MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW. AS FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS
CHANGING...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...
CONTINUING THE DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO NORMAL
TEMPS MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BLO NORMAL. PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE...REACHING THE
UPPER LAKES SAT MORNING. PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 285K SFC (700-750MB) SHOULD
YIELD A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MIXING
RATIOS ON THE 285K SFC ARE 2G/KG...THE PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS SHORT-LIVED...AND MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO MOISTENING THE
ANTECEDANT DRY LOW-LEVELS. SO...MAYBE 3HRS OR SO OF STEADIER
-SN LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING IN THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA...CLOSER
TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE/BEST HEIGHT FALLS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES AND A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO -13C BEHIND SHORTWAVE ON SAT...THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT LES OFF THE OPEN SPOTS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER IN THE
NW BACKING W LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC RIDGE AXIS.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...2 MORE SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THRU THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WX SAT NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT
WILL PUSH ANY LES (IF THERE IS ANY) OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATE IN
THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OFF TO THE SW IN
SRN MN/SW WI...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP.
FARTHER N...DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE MAY
SPREAD A LITTLE -SN INTO THE W. WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN
AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -12C PROBABLY WON`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MUCH IF
ANY LES SUN EVENING.

RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DOMINATING
MON THRU THU AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO THE N OF HERE. PERSISTENT WAA
WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C MON MORNING TO RISE TO 1 TO 4C
BY TUE MORNING AND TO 4 TO 8C BY WED MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SINCE SUNSHINE ON
THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME
HEATING...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE
FOR MON THRU WED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS TUE AND WED. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
UPPER MI WED...SO TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPS. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THE N TO BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED THAN TUE WHILE THE S
REMAINS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER. IF TUE AND/OR WED ENDS UP MOSTLY
SUNNY...WOULD EXPECT SOME 50S IN THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THU WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER A GRADIENT NRLY FLOW (UPPER 20S N TO MID 30S FAR
SCNTRL).
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR BY FRI AFTERNOON. SHARP INVERSION IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO FRI MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION. EXPECT A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS ON WESTERN AND NCENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
WINDS DECREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. SW
WINDS KICK UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO 25KTS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE ICE MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT
AROUND AND/OR DIMINISH DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO
SINCE TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



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