842
FXUS63 KMQT 271741
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
141 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers/drizzle lingers today, gradually drying out
  from west to east. Patchy fog may accompany this and lower
  visibilities during the morning commute.

- A brief warmup into the 80s is expected this weekend into
  Monday, with showers and thunderstorms possible (around 50%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Surface low and its associated warm and cold fronts slowly moved
through Upper Michigan this morning, producing mostly cloudy skies
and pockets of light rain. As of this writing, the warm front is
pressing into eastern Upper Michigan with the cold front extending
southwest through the western interior. Lingering morning fog
largely mixed out behind the warm front, but pockets of fog are
still being observed ahead of the warm front and cooling behind the
cold front have support pockets in the west and Keweenaw. Mostly
cloudy skies with the aforementioned features have supported temps
in the 50s and 60s mostly, with 70s being observed within the warm
sector across the south-central.

For the rest of today and this evening, the surface low will lift
northeast into Ontario while the mid-upper level shortwave presses
into the west atop a surface high. The fronts will follow the low,
exiting the region this evening. For the most part, the west half
should continue cooling while the east and maybe the south-central
warms a little more thanks to the transiting warm sector. Drizzle
and some pockets of fog will continue to be possible, mainly where
terrain is enhancing flow across the west/Keweenaw and north-
central. Tonight, conditions should be mostly dry with lows near 50
to the mid 50s. Additional fog is expected to develop, with some
potential for less than 1 mile visibilities, mainly across the west
half. Latest HREF suggests probability of such being >50%. Saturday,
surface ridge axis will press through, supporting mostly dry
conditions under mostly sunny skies. Daytime temps look to warm into
the 70s by the lakeshores/interior, but low 80s interior west.

Late in the afternoon upstream, a warm and cold front will approach
the Great Lakes. Instability and a low level jet will support
elevated thunderstorms developing across Minnesota. These will press
eastward through the evening and overnight as the fronts approach
the region. There are still some questions about how widespread
convective activity will be ahead of and along the approaching
fronts. General thought is that showers and thunderstorms will press
into Upper Michigan/Lake Superior along the warm front in the
evening/overnight, with some potential for some strong storms in the
evening across the west half before instability wanes. Expecting the
remnants to continue pressing eastward through the forecast area
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

An extremely zonal pattern will be over the northern tier of the
CONUS through the weekend, though looking north, a shortwave trough
will push into western northern Ontario by 12Z Sunday. This will
support a 1000-1005mb surface low pressure with a cold front draped
south of it passing into the UP in the overnight hours of Saturday
into Sunday. Increasing warm southerly flow ahead of the front will
allow for a notable warmup with NBM highs near 80. As the front
itself will be passing after peak heating, instability will be
present aloft (Euro ensemble suggesting MUCAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg in the west by 06Z Sunday) but lesser for surace-lifted parcels
(LREF SBCAPE under 1500 J/kg and beneath a cap in excess of -125
J/kg of MUCIN). Some shear will be present, but severe weather seems
unlikely at this time. As the frontal showers continue to push in
for Sunday, further questions are raised by increased model spread
in forcing, shear, and instability, though Euro ensemble joint
probabilities of at least 500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30+ kt of bulk
shear are in the 40-60% range, so severe weather cannot be ruled
out, but uncertainty remains high.

The pattern will begin to amplify once again for the early portion
of next work week as ridging builds over the Canadian and northern
US Rockies with troughing developing over the Great Lakes Basin. The
northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures close to seasonal,
but amplification of the troughing is expected to bring more
periodic chances of precipitation and thunderstorms especially in
the evening hours with peak heating. This could cause some hazards
for outdoors plans this week ahead of Independence Day, so planners
should monitor the forecast for changes as the pattern becomes more
defined and details emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Abundant low level moisture is supporting LIFR conditions at
KIWD/KCMX. Fog/mist will continue to improve to VFR this afternoon,
with ceilings slowly following overnight. Overnight cooling may
support overnight mist/fog, potentially at IFR. Latest HREF suggests
30-50% chance for less than 1 mile visibilities. Any fog should
begin to mix out as the sun rises. At KSAW, VFR conditions should be
realized earlier, perhaps by midnight tonight. Afterwards, morning
fog/mist late tonight/early Saturday morning should mix out as the
sun rises.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Northwest winds around 20 kts will fall below 20 kts this evening
across the east with southwest to west winds below 20 knots across
the west and central tonight as high pressure builds into the
region. Waves will fall below 3 ft by tonight. Winds and waves then
remain mostly calm as only weaker pressure systems affect the lake
for the weekend into next week, though periodic thunderstorms may
occasionally be over the lake, with the highest chances being late
Saturday night through Sunday evening.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...PK