Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281954
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND EVER PRESENT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES KICKED
OFF CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THUS FAR...MAIN AREA OF TSRA
HAVE OCCURRED WHERE BOUNDARY WAS SEEN THIS MORNING OUT OF LINGERING
CLOUD/ACCAS FIELD LEFTOVER FM THE SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT OCCURRED LAST
EVENING OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. WEAK SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS HAS
KEPT STRENGTH OF STORMS IN CHECK. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN DECENT LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WITH ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL WITH
THE STORM NEAR MUNISING. STRONGEST STORMS WERE WHERE THE MORNING
BOUNDARY INTERSECTED LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTN. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WERE OVER ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AND WHERE MLCAPES WERE TOWARD
1000J/KG. EXPECT THESE CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT DROP POPS COMPLETELY THOUGH AS
MOST OF CWA WILL BE WITHIN H85-H7 TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
ALONG THAT AXIS. MAY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCCURRED LAST NIGHT WITH
SMALLER FEATURES DRIVING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. ADDED FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE PERSISTENT RAIN THIS AFTN. LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MAJORITY OF CWA.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CNTRL MANITOBA SWINGS
SOUTH TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTN. SEEMS THAT MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS MORE OVER FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO WI/MN.
TROUGH IS PRESENT AT H85-H7 AND THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE REACHED BY EARLY AFTN. NAM/GFS SEEM TOO
HIGH WITH DWPNTS INTO THE MID 60S AND THUS HAVE MLCAPES NEARING
2000J/KG. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND LIMITED CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH
MINIMAL ADVECTION...EXPECT DWPNTS TO BE MORE AROUND 60F ON MONDAY
AFTN AS TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPR 70S. PREFER THE GEM-REGIONAL AND
SREF SHOWING MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG BUT NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE
1000 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN LIGHT SO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LESS THAN
20 KTS. ON ITS OWN...THAT WOULD SUGGEST NO SEVERE STORMS. SUPPOSE IF
NAM/GFS ARE CORRECT WITH THEIR 2000+ J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE AND 1500+
OF MLCAPE...THEN PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...COULD ALSO SEE STORMS BECOME STRONGER VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZES.
OVERALL THINK THERE IS ONLY A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTN. WOULD SAY IT WILL BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING TODAY...BUT YOU JUST NEVER KNOW WITH SUMMERTIME SHRA/TSRA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FOCUS ON POPS FOR
MON NGT THRU TUE AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT E OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES THRU MID WEEK...SO TEMPS SHOULD TEND AOB NORMAL.
THE PATTERN MAY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY EVOLVE TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND...SO THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF WARMER WX THEN.

MON NGT/TUE...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
THAT IS FCST TO DIG SSEWD THRU THE WRN LKS INTO LOWER MI BY LATE TUE
AND ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA. IN FACT...MANY OF THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON TUE OVER THE
SE HALF OF THE CWA. SO TENDED TO PROGRESS THE HIER POPS MORE SLOWLY
TO THE SE ON MON NGT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SINCE ANTECEDENT LLVL DRY
AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT TO THE E. BEST CHC FOR TS WL BE ON MON EVNG
OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO UPR DVGC CORE IN
LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...UNDER AXIS OF
HIER H85 THETA E...AND WHERE FCST MUCAPES REACH AOA 1000 J/KG BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING LOWERS THE INSTABILITY OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH NO
ORGANIZED SVR TS APPEAR LIKELY WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NO HIER THAN 10-20
KTS TO THE E OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL NNW WINDS IN MN/NRN PLAINS
AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 6.5C/KM...
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS ON MON EVNG COULD DROP MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL OVER THE W GIVEN RELATIVELY LO WBZ NEAR 9K FT. SPC HAS PLACED
THE W HALF OF UPR MI UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS FOR DAY
2...WHICH INCLUDES MON/MON NGT.

TUE NGT THRU THU...ALTHOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER NNW FLOW ALOFT BTWN RATHER DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN
NAMERICA AND PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE W...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HI PRES AND OVERALL DRYING TREND. SOME OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE FCSTS FM SAT HINTED PWAT COULD FALL AS LO AS 0.25
INCH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES PWAT
WL NOT FALL MUCH BLO 0.75 INCH WITH A WEAKER SFC HI PRES/MORE
LINGERING LLVL MSTR. HOWEVER... DRY WX STILL APPEARS LIKELY WITH
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/LLVL ACYC FLOW DOMINATING. BUT WITH HIER
PWAT/WEAKER SFC HI PRES...IF A STRONGER SHRTWV THAN CURRENTLY FCST
WERE TO DIG INTO THE UPR LKS THRU THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THAT FEATURE
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL FAVOR
BLO NORMAL TEMPS...GENERAL TREND FOR SOMEWHAT HIER MSTR/H85 TEMPS
CLOSER TO 10-12C INDICATES THE BLO NORMAL ANOMALIES...ESPECIALLY THE
MIN TEMPS...MAY NOT BE AS SGNFT.

THU NGT THRU NEXT WEEKEND...GENERAL LONGER RANGE TREND IS FOR A MORE
DISORGANIZED/OUT OF PHASE COMPLEX OF SHRTWVS TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS
LATE THIS WEEK. SO SHOWER/TS CHANCES CENTERED AROUND FRI DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS SGNFT AS YDAY. WITH A WEAKER SFC LO PRES AS WELL...
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER WX ON JULY 4TH DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY
EITHER AS THE UPR PATTERN TENDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW. IN FACT...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS INDICATES H85 TEMPS WL
BE ABOUT 14C ON SAT UNDER A WEAK SFC HI PRES RDG...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AWAY FM LK MODERATION UNDER
MOSUNNY SKIES. SUN LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH A SW LLVL FLOW BTWN
THE DEPARTING SFC HI PRES AND APRCHG SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS
LIFTING H85 TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 16C. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SHRTWV FM THE W MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS/TS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POPPING UP MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. COULD SEE TERMINALS AFFECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...THOUGH THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO GO
WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. MID CLOUDS
WITH ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA AND
TSRA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTN AS COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD
UPR MICHIGAN FM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. ATTM APPEARS GREATEST
CHANCE OF TSRA ON MONDAY AFTN WOULD BE AT KIWD AND KSAW FARTHER AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07


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