Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 142341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
741 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Lakeshore flooding and strong winds are the primary hazards in the
short term, so focused most on those.

Utilized the higher-res guidance (NAM, CMC, NCEP WRFs) for winds
through Sunday. These models are in very good agreement with the
strength/timing/track of the SFC low, while the GFS/ECMWF are
similar track but faster and a little weaker. Expect NE winds to
increase this evening into Sunday morning. Peak gusts will be over
and near S-central Lake Superior late tonight through late Sun
morning with shorelines gusts up to 45-50mph. Have issued a wind
advisory as a result. This will also generate large waves, large
enough to cause beach erosion along all of our Lake Superior shores.
Waves will be highest from Marquette County east at up to around
15ft, with the largest waves expected late tonight into early Sun
afternoon. The height and NE-N direction of these waves will lead to
flooding of Lakeshore Blvd in Marquette in addition to other exposed
locations. Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Marquette, Alger
and Luce Counties. Other concern for lakeshore flooding is US-41
between Baraga and L`Anse due to potential for NNE winds coming
right down the bay for around 12 hours and elevated lake levels. Not
nearly as certain in that area given lack of known cataloged
flooding cases there.

Of course, plenty of rain is expected. Widespread rainfall amounts
around an inch, with localized amounts near or greater than 1.5
inches expected. No significant impacts are expected from the precip.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with
the ern mid/upper level trough giving way to ridging by the end of
the week. During the transition a couple of stronger shortwaves will
move through srn Canada in the wrly flow bringing sfc troughs/fronts
through the nrn Great Lakes. After a relatively cool day Monday with
max temps near or slightly below seasonal averages, temps will
remain above normal for the rest of the week.

Sunday night, lowering inversion heights and dry low level air
should limit potential for additional lake pcpn as weak ridging
builds into the area. The best chance for pcpn will remain over the
east downwind of the longer fetch during the evening where 850 mb
temps around -5C linger. However, only a few sct -shra from P53
eastward are expected with little/no QPF.

Monday, Expect a cool day with some stratocu as the 850 mb
thermal (H8 temps around -1C) with temps in the lower to mid 50s.

Tue-Sat, temps in the 60s tue into wed with mild wrly flow will only
fall off slightly by Thursday behind a weak cool front. Even milder
conditions are expected by Fri-Sat with 850 mb temps to around 16C
with sw flow into the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

As low pres tracks from IA to northern Lower MI by sunrise on Sun,
shra will overspread the area tonight, winds will increase, and
cigs/vis will steadily lower to MVFR at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Favorable
upslope northerly winds at KSAW during Sun morning will likely lead
to IFR cigs at that terminal. Winds will generally gust to 20-30kt
late tonight thru Sun morning, but there will be higher gusts to
around 35kt at KSAW. Conditions will improve rather quickly from w
to e Sun aftn/evening as the low quickly departs. All 3 terminals
will be VFR by evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 358 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Winds will increase to gales tonight into Sunday as winds become
north-northeasterly. A few storm force gusts are possibly over
eastern Lake Superior late tonight into early Sunday afternoon. As
the system exits the region, winds will briefly diminish to around
15 knots Sunday night; however, expect the winds to ramp back up to
20 to 30 knots Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday through the end of the
week, winds look to remain around or just below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ005>007.

  Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ006-

  Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for MIZ005.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ248>251-265>267.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ244-245-264.

  Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ246-247.

  Gale Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM
     EDT /10 AM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-240>243-263.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ221-248-250.



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