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000
FXUS63 KMQT 142311
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR
WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...A 992 MB LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NW MN INTO ERN SD. A WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM CNTRL MN INTO SRN WI. RADAR INDICATED WEAK RETURNS
WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS(VIRGA OR SPRINKLES) THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI
AS THE BAND OF 310K (750-600 MB)ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED SKIES CLEARING OVER THE WEST AS DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE PCPN BAND MOVES IN.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI ON THE SRN TAIL OF THE STRONGER QVECTOR CONV
AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
VALUES (LIFTING FROM NEAR 750 MB) OF 500-1000 J/KG STILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF TSRA. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE
MARGINAL (20-30 KT) SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LIMITED AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOO HIGH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
SO...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

WED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MID-LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 5C EARLY WED BUT
REBOUND TO TO AROUND 8C-9C WED AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 800
MB SHOULD MIX A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH PORTION OF THE VERY DRY 800-650 MB
LAYER TO DROP DEWPOINTS INLAND TO AROUND 30F. WITH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. NW WIND
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF INLAND
WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

OUR STRONGER WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVEN WITH
A REINFORCING SFC TROUGH STRETCHED W-E OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT 06Z
THURSDAY SINKING SE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH
THAT RH VALUES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND TO 35 PERCENT OR BETTER BY 03Z
THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING EASTERN
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS...AND IN
PARTICULAR GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...AND DICKINSON COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE DIMINISHED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AVERAGING 5-10KTS. A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IS REALLY MARGINAL GIVEN THE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN CARRIER
OF FIRES IS THE DRY GRASSES.

THE LINGERING HIGH OVER THE EAST WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE MUCH EAST OF
A LINE FROM MQT TO ESC UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT INCREASED S FLOW STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A
NEARING LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. SEVERAL
WARMER NIGHTS ARE FIGURED WITH MID 40S FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...NEAR
50F SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS TO
MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SFC LOW
AND 500MB TROUGH GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE CWA...AROUND OR AFTER THE
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. EXPECT THE ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEAST MN TO N TX AT 18Z SUNDAY /ECMWF FARTHEST EAST/ TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GFS
DOES NOT BRING THE LOW TO WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP ROTING INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND
SUNDAY...GIVEN THE LARGER DISCREPANCIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS PRIMARY SFC FRONT ARRIVES. PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SHARP DRYING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONGEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KTS TONIGHT INTO WED
BUT WILL BE LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN
INCREASING STABILITY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
30KTS LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER COOL AND WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE SPRING SO FAR...SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE
COMMON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ENDING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB