Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 090703
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
303 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF BROUGHT
SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. THAT WAVE IS NOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...THERE
ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER JUST
TO THE E IN NRN ONTARIO. NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG IS THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER HERE
TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS. AS OF 19Z...
READINGS WERE STILL ONLY HOVERING AROUND 50F NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AROUND 60/LWR 60S ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...TEMP HAS ONLY
REACHED 54F HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TODAY IS
60F. IF LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND THRU SUNSET...THAT RECORD WILL
FALL. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE FROM NE MN INTO
NRN WI...BUILD UP OF A LITTLE INSTABILITY UNDER COOL CYCLONIC NW
FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO DEVELOP. THOSE SHRA HAVE BEEN BRUSHING MENOMINEE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING TOWARD DIURNAL MIN...EXPECT SOME
SHRA TO PERSIST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE WAVES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
AFORMENTIONED STRONGER WRN WAVE. THIS SHOULD PUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA ROUGHLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SINCE SHORTWAVE
IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS WAVE...MUCAPE IS UNDER 100J/KG...
SHOWALTER INDEX IS ABOVE 0 AND NO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WAVE SO
FAR THIS AFTN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER THRU WED MORNING WITH WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH SOLID HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER DURING THE DAY
(12HR 500MB HEIGHTS RISE 70-90M) ALONG WITH COLUMN DRYING...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTN -SHRA OVER THE SCNTRL AS
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...SO ISOLD -SHRA
MENTION WAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTN IN THAT AREA. AS OPPOSED TO
TODAY...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WED UNDER DRYING/HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 70F INLAND. WHERE WINDS ARE
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...TEMPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT GET OUT OF
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THU/THU NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WHILE A SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ON FRI
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WRN
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT BETTER...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. MUCAPES UP TO 400J/KG AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT...AND WITH GREATER MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN FRI. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP /PRIMARILY OVER SCENTRAL
UPPER MI/ ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW AROUND 1500J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS SCENTRAL
UPPER MI WITH AROUND 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WHILE IT IS
IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SAT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS...TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...BUT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
3C...WITH SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EVEN POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISTURBANCE DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES
LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD SEE DENSE FOG AT TIMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA






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