Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 190705
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NAM ADVERTISES A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOWLY THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD.

NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO THE SAME THING. BASICALLY...WILL BE DAMP AND CLOUDY WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING...THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE
AROUND. WILL IGNORE THE DRIZZLE THOUGH IN THE WEATHER AS THE RAIN
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THEM TONIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR E THURSDAY NIGHT. A SIZABLE
TROUGH SET UP FROM FROM W AND CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE ENTIRE W
U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THE N CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SFC FEATURES AND WX...THE EXITING SFC LOW OVER N LAKE MI
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
MID DAY AT LEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SINK SE WITH
THE SFC LOW.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...DESPITE THE 500MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT
E ON FRIDAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF INCONSISTENCIES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HAS AN ELONGATED SFC LOW FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MN AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO ONTARIO/FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING WAA
TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHING POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING HRS UNDER
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW/DEEP MOISTURE AND SCT TO AT TIMES NMRS SHRA OVER
UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD FROM MN. AT
KIWD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR AS
LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS LATER IN THE NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS...THOUGH
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL BACK
TO LIFR TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

KEPT IN FOG OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL LAKE GIVEN ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED AREA OF LOWER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LINGERING
COOLEST DEEPER WATER. OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





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