Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 091942
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM IS IN STORE ACROSS UPPER MI WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND CLEAR
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME WELL-INLAND LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND SOUTHERN JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE WAVES HAVE PASSED OVER THE CWA DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE LAST ONE APPROACHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIP EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHORTWAVES. ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
THUS DIMINISH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ALONG LAKE MI
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS TO THE EAST. A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER FORMING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE
TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES
INLAND...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND EVEN
SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OTHER THAN SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIN CIRRUS
ACROSS THE WEST...SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND
SHOULD PUSH FARTHEST INLAND ALONG LAKE MI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THU/THU NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WHILE A SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ON FRI
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WRN
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT BETTER...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. MUCAPES UP TO 400J/KG AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT...AND WITH GREATER MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN FRI. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP /PRIMARILY OVER SCENTRAL
UPPER MI/ ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW AROUND 1500J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS SCENTRAL
UPPER MI WITH AROUND 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WHILE IT IS
IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SAT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS...TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...BUT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
3C...WITH SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EVEN POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW-END VFR CUMULUS AT MAINLY SAW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





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