Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 232352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT. WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE W...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE
FIRST WITH IFR CIGS LIFTING TO LOW MVFR THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AROUND 05Z. KCMX WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND...JUST DELAYED A COUPLE OF HRS. HOWEVER...AT BOTH KIWD/KCMX...
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOW CIGS COULD PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...OR AFTER CLEARING OCCURS...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. AT
KSAW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIFR NIGHT IS IN THE OFFING BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING IF NOT SOONER...GIVEN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
NOTED UPSTREAM IN NCNTRL WI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FRI...BUT ONLY AFTER EARLY MORNING LIFR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






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