Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 061855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON


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