000
FXUS63 KMQT 161744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

IN A NUTSHELL...18Z TUE AND 00Z WED MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH
HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF/SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM MAKING WARNING HEADLINES
OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN NOT AS CERTAIN.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING
SFC LOW IS LEADING TO LATE DEVELOPING TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW FARTHER WEST. TREND
DOES MAKE SOME SENSE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS
IS EVENTUALLY CAUGHT BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE /REALLY IS NOW JUST
SHOWING UP/ IN THE SAME STREAM THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVR
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL DROP CLOSE ENOUGH SOUTH TO PHASE WITH
THESE LEADING WAVES. SFC LOW THAT WAS 24 HR AGO FORECAST BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO BE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY IS
NOW OVR CNTRL WI AT THAT SAME TIME. NET RESULT IS SLOWER SYSTEM
MOVEMENT ACROSS UPPER LAKES...WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND DELAY OF HEAVIER SNOW MAKING IT BACK INTO CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL APPEARS FAR WEST AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW WILL BE IN H8-H7 FGEN/DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MINIMAL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY. SNOW TOTALS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE MUDDLED HEADING INTO
THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY MARQUETTE AND
DICKINSON.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPING SNOW BAND ALONG H8 FGEN FM CNTRL MN
INTO WCNTRL WI LIFTS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
WI BORDER AND THIS AFTN OVER THE NORTH CWA. COULD EVEN BE LATE AFTN
FOR FAR EASTERN CWA. PROBABLY WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS
TRANSIENT BAND OF SNOW. TROUBLE IS THAT ONCE THIS BAND OF SNOW
FORCED BY THE MID-LEVEL FGEN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTS
THROUGH...THERE IS NOTHING TO FILL IN BEHIND IT AS LARGER SCALE
FORCING IS NOW DELAYED. GEM SHOWED THIS LAST NIGHT AND WAS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK IT APPEARS...AS NOW ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR
SCENARIO TONIGHT. THIS LULL REALLY AFFECTS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA. SEEMS THAT WARNINGS FOR
MARQUETTE AND ESPECIALLY DICKINSON COULD BE TOUGHER TO VERIFY. AS
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
THURSDAY...COULD RECEIVE A BURST OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS THE
FGEN AND LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINE. THOUGHT ABOUT CHANGING TO
ADVY FOR MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON BUT HAVE HARD TIME MAKING THAT
SIGNIFICANT OF CHANGE CONSIDERING THE EVENT HAS NOT STARTED YET.
INSTEAD WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND GET HANDLE ON
TRENDS ONCE THE SNOW FULLY DEVELOPS.

DID BEGIN THE TREND OF THE LULL IN THE SNOW BY DROPPING TO CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA...AND ALSO
IN ADDED THIS TO THE WORDING OF THE WSW STATEMENT. FEASIBLY COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE NOT MUCH IS GOING ON THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM MQT TO ESC AND TO THE EAST. PUSH OF HEAVIER SNOW DOES COMES
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT...SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. JUST FOR
FUN THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED EVEN SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE SCENARIO...
NOT BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EXTENT/TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.

KIWD...EXPECTED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVEMENT START THURSDAY MORNING.

KCMX...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND WILL STAY POOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KSAW...HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS DRY AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON