Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 300846
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
446 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS MOVING OUT OF FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO
HUDSON BAY. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...IT IS SWEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
(CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). THERE
ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH
THE MOISTURE BEING MOST PROMINENT BETWEEN 800-650MB AS SEEN ON THE
00Z KINL SOUNDING. ARE SEEING LOWER CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH IN
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WHERE RAP ANALYSIS DATA IS SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE BETWEEN 925-850MB. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE ARE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL SEEING GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE KCMX GUSTING TO
27KTS AT 353AM. INLAND AREAS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE GENERALLY INT HE
5-10KT RANGE.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...20-25KTS
FOR MOST AREAS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE KEWEENAW...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. NEXT WAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA) WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DIURNAL HEATING THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THEM OCCURRING
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...WHERE THE DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED AWAY
FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ALSO EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KEWEENAW TOWARD
EVENING...BUT HAVE KEPT THE POPS JUST TO THE WEST FOR NOW.

MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 300-
1400 J/KG)...AND BELIEVE THE ML CAPE VALUES WILL FALL IN THE MIDDLE
GROUND AND AROUND 700-800 J/KG BASED OFF A CONSENSUS AND 03Z SREF
PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. SO
THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY TO WORK WILL. PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH
(0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS)...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
MUCH WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IN ADDITION...THE
CAPE IS FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY (NCAPE VALUES AT OR BELOW 0.1 IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...SO DON/T THINK HAIL IS MUCH OF A THREAT. WOULD LIKELY
BE GUSTY WINDS IF THERE ARE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE INVERTED-V
LOOK OF THE SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH DCAPE LOOKS TO BE
BEST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN). ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING IS LOST.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA TONIGHT. STILL SOME
DDIFFERENCESIN THE WAVE TIMING/TRACK IN THE MODELS...BUT THEY ARE
SHOWING LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE U.P....SO WILL KEEP ANY
POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IMPACTS...WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
WATCHING FIRE WEATHER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HANG OUT OVER HUDSON BAY FROM THU NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...SENDING SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DURING TIME. PREDICTABILITY OF THE WAVES IS POOR AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY RESOLVE THE FEATURES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE...LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

FRI LOOKS PRETTY DRY WHEN LOOKING AT THE SFC RH DROPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...MAKING FOR
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING TO THE SE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST IS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL RESULT FROM THE SHIFT AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING OF THAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON LOOKS LIKE BEST BET FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD PRECIP STILL
MAY NOT OCCUR ALONG THE STRONGER WAVE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES MON THROUGH WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WHILE GUSTY W TO WSW
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AT KIWD/KSAW...EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KT TO CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
SITE. AFTER SUNRISE AND ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...GUSTY WINDS TO 20-
25KT WILL RETURN TO KIWD/KSAW...AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30KT AT KCMX. THERE MAY BE ISOLD SHRA NEAR KIWD THU AFTN...BUT
POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION IN FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HHUDSONBAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF


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