000
FXUS63 KMQT 040920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS