Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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700
FXUS63 KMQT 240508
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
108 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

12Z raobs/latest WV imagery and RAP analysis show a bldg upr rdg
over the western Great Lks/Ontario downstream of troffing across the
nrn Rockies/Wcentral Canada. Although there were a few showers over
the ern cwa this mrng, strong capping shown on the 12Z INL/MPX/GRB
raobs and a push of relatively dry llvl air into the Upr Lks within
gusty SW winds btwn sfc hi pres in the mid-Atlantic states and a lo
pres in the nrn Plains to the E of the upr trof are resulting in
mosunny wx over Upr MI this aftn. With h85 temps aprchg 20C, sfc
temps away fm moderation off Lk MI have risen well into the 80s.
There is another shrtwv lifting NEwd thru NW Iowa in the SW flow alf
ahead of the Rockies trof causing a cluster of showers/TS moving
toward srn MN.

Main fcst concerns in the short term fcst period focus on pops
associated with shrtwv aprchg fm the SW.

Tngt...This evng wl be dry/just some hi clds ahead of shrtwv to the
SW with a capped environment still in place. But later tngt, shrtwv
to the SW is fcst to move into WI by 12Z. With incrsg mid lvl mstr/
h85 theta-e advctn/some weak dpva and deep lyr qvector cnvgc
arriving near the WI border late ahead of this feature, expect the
return of more clds and at least some sct showers near the border
toward sunrise. The combination of steady SW winds/incrsg clds wl
result in well above normal min temps in the 60s, with readings in
the downslope locations near Lk Sup probably falling not much blo 70.

Wed...Shrtwv in WI is fcst to drift NEwd thru Scentral Upr MI/nrn Lk
MI and to near nrn Lk Huron by late in the day. The track of this
disturbance/sharper deep lyr forcing and h85 theta-e advctn favors
mainly the SE half of the cwa for the hier pops. Modest h7-5 lapse
rates fcst aob 6-6.5C/km and a good deal of cld cover that wl limit
sfc heating/max temps mainly in the 70s favor only a few embedded
TS. Mid lvl drying in the wake of the shrtwv wl then result in
diminished pops over the W, but concerns about at least some sfc
destabilization with thinning clds ahead of slowly aprchg sfc cold
fnt associated with Rockies trof warrants at least some lo chc pops.
But the drying/subsidence left in the wake of the departing
disturbance and ahead of any forcing with the shrtwv tracking E just
N of the Cndn border wl limit the potential for these additional
showers/TS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

A shortwave and SFC cold front will lead to some remnant showers and
thunderstorms exiting early Wed night. Otherwise, may see some
showers late Thu night into Fri morning over the west as a weaker
shortwave may pass through, but confidence in overall coverage is
low.

Next chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Sat into Sun as a
more substantial shortwave looks to move through the region.
However, as is normal with shortwaves at this time frame, models
vary on timing/track. Consensus guidance was used given the level of
uncertainty and needed broadbrushing. Unsettled weather early next
week, but confidence in precip is low, so continued to use consensus.

No significant impacts expected from conditions in the extended.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 108 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Later tonight, the SSW flow wl tap increasing llvl moisture ahead of
an approaching disturbance and frontal system. The combination of
the increased moisture advection as well as moistening fm -shra that
develop ahead of the disturbance wl result in deteriorating
conditions into at least the MVFR range on Wed mrng, especially at
IWD and SAW where there is a better chc for the -shra. Not out of
the question there could be some IFR cigs at both SAW and IWD by
late morning. Behind the passing disturbance and assoc sfc
trough/front, expect improvement to VFR by late Wed afternoon/Wed
evening as drier air works in from the west.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 340 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

S to SW winds up to 20 kts will persist thru Wed ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the W following the
frontal passage on Wed night and then increase up to 25 kts on Thu
as the gradient tightens a bit. As trailing hi pres approaches and
the gradient slackens, winds will veer to the NW and diminish to
under 15 kts on Fri. Expect SE winds up to 20 kts to prevail over
the weekend between the departing hi pres and a lo pres approaching
from the SW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...KC



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