Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 241139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY HAS LED TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING TAKES HOLD
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...FIRST
AT AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW (KIWD IS ALREADY
OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG) AND THEN PROGRESSING INLAND. ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS COME TO AN END...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO COME TO AN END
UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN...THINK THEY WILL BUILD BACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AFFECT KSAW AGAIN TONIGHT. PUT A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGS AND END TO THE CLOUDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






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