Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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967
FXUS63 KMQT 050650
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER



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