Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 121958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPARTS TONIGHT AND THEN RETURNS AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON THE I290K-I305K SURFACES THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE THE LIFT
DEPARTS THE CWA.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND A
FEW SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. PUT FOG INTO THE FORECAST WITH A MOIST EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE. DO NOT THINK
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT EXCEPT ON WINDSHIELDS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES AS GROUND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP ICE FROM FORMING...SO DID NOT PUT INTO THE FORECAST AND MOST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE ON SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE SOUTH. BEST
CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE MODEL SPREAD IS ROUGHLY
10F FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH OUR OFFICIAL
FCST BOUNCING FROM ALL ALONG THE SPECTRUM

THE WEATHER MAP AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE W COAST...AND THE SE U.S. IN THE MIDDLE A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH WY AND
CO. THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED OVER HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIG ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ARE NOW
IN THE MID 40S.

LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OK THROUGH NE AND LOWER MI AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO LOWER MI AND FAR S QUEBEC BY 12Z
MONDAY...AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER FAR E CANADA MONDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE LOW. NW WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TOP OUT 20 TO
NEAR 30KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

THE COLDEST DAY /TUESDAY/ WILL SEE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN AT THE SFC...WITH NW FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWMELT AND RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SLOWING DOWN THE WHOLE
PROCESS. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO FALL BELOW -8C OVER THE W HALF BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...CHANGING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP TO ALL SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MORE JUMBLED...WITH THE A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE S EXTENDED
OF THE LOW FOR TH-FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
THIS LONGER TERM PERIOD. THE MID WEEK SFC HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY
YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH NM
AND WI AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T HAVE IT
CROSSING UPPER MI UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT JUMP
INTO THE WEEDS OF THE EXTENDED FCST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AND SHOULD GO TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL SITES.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AND THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS WELL TO KEEP DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE NORTH
GALES TO 35 KNOTS ON MONDAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES
INTO LAKE HURON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

FORTUNATELY...LIMITED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HAS KEPT THE SNOWMELT SIMILAR TO NORMAL SPRING
CONDITIONS. WOULD EXPECT A SLOW STEADY RISE IN RIVER LEVELS
TODAY...WITHOUT ANY LARGER RIVERS RISING ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME.
THE PROBLEM AREAS SO FAR HAVE BEEN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN DELTA
COUNTY WHERE HAVE BEEN NEAR OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THERE
HAS SEEN EVIDENCE OF MINOR ICE JAMES ON SOME HYDROGRAPHS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO...MOST NOTABLY ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
(RKLM4) AND THE FORD RIVER NEAR HYDE (FRDM4). THE RKLM4 ICE JAM SEEMS
TO HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM OR BROKEN UP...BUT DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THE
STATE OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM GIVEN A LACK OF REPORTS/RIVER ACCESS.
THE FRDM4 ICE JAM LOOKS TO HAVE RELAXED FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY
HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR THAT RIVER TO WARN OF FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS AND ICE IS LIKELY STILL IN THE SYSTEM. AM UNSURE OF
IMPACTS/EXTENT OF THIS ICE JAM AS RIVER BANKS/STRUCTURES ARE FAIRLY
HIGH ABOVE THE RIVER PER DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS. THERE WERE
ALSO REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER AREA CREEKS/STREAMS THAT ARE
NOT GAUGED...BUT NO IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THIS ICE BREAK UP DOES LEAD
TO SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVERS THAT EMPTY INTO THE MAINLY FROZEN GREAT
LAKES.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW /MELTING AS IT FALLS/
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AMOUNTS TO
BE IN THE 0.30-0.50 INCH RANGE...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING WITH THIS RAIN...THE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. EXPECT COLDER AIR TO SURGE IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OR EVEN
END THE SNOW MELT...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. SINCE 4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
STILL REMAINS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...KF






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