Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
532 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb broad trough over the central
U.S. with a ridge off the west coast. There is also a shortwave over
the northern plains this morning. This shortwave heads east and
moves through the area today. Pretty dry conditions exist upstream
of the area as evidenced by 00z MPX sounding and there is an awful
lot of dry air to overcome. For this reason, kept pops pretty low
for the west half today. Overall, did not make too many changes to
the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

Most attention remains on Sun through Mon when a couple rounds of
light to moderate system snow are expected.

Snow associated with a shortwave Sun has been trending more N/NW
with latest model runs. The s-central looks to see little to no
snow, while the NW half of Upper MI is forecast to be closer to 4-6
inches. Elsewhere generally 2-4 inches is expected. However, there
remains uncertainty in exact track and magnitude of QPF, and locally
higher amounts are possible depending on details of possible FGen
banding over the NW. Snow ratios will be around 20:1 and winds will
be breezy but not too windy. An advisory looks to be a good call,
but will let the day shift have a final look at trends.

The next system remains pretty uncertain, but models have trended
lower with QPF/snowfall, which makes sense given the setup.
Generally have 2-5 inches of wet 10:1 ratio snow Mon and Mon
evening, with lesser amounts under 2 inches near Lake Michigan where
some light freezing rain is possible. Still hard to pin the ice
forecast down given the uncertainties. Looks like a solid advisory
level event for much of Upper Michigan at this point. Certainly
plenty of room for models to change, so continue to monitor.

Could see another couple inches of snow Mon night and Tue, but does
not look too impactful.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 532 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Ahead of an
approaching disturbance, low-level winds have strengthened just off
the sfc, and this will lead to LLWS at KSAW this morning. As the
disturbance moves across the area today, some light snow will be
possible. Best chance of MVFR cigs and light snow will be at KCMX.
Clouds will scatter out during the evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 300 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

A few southwest gale force gusts to 35 knots could still be possible
today. Otherwise, winds are expected to stay below gales through the
rest of the forecast period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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