Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 292023
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WV IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND SFC OBS INDICATED AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE 990 MB LOW AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AROUND 40 MPH.
VIS LOOP SHOWED EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM NRN MN INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EDGING EASTWARD AND AS CAA DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS
TO AROUND 11C.

TONIGHT...EXPECT A SECONDARY TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
SHORTWAVES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT PCPN ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND
20 KNOTS AND ONLY LIMITED DECOUPLING...TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MID 60S IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS.

THU...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MLCAPE VALUES BLO 500
J/KG...ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED NEAR
THE WI BORDER. WITHH DCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1200 J/KG AND HIGH BASED
CONVECTION...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IMPACTS...WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
WATCHING FIRE WEATHER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HANG OUT OVER HUDSON BAY FROM THU NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...SENDING SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DURING TIME. PREDICTABILITY OF THE WAVES IS POOR AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY RESOLVE THE FEATURES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE...LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

FRI LOOKS PRETTY DRY WHEN LOOKING AT THE SFC RH DROPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...MAKING FOR
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING TO THE SE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST IS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL RESULT FROM THE SHIFT AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING OF THAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON LOOKS LIKE BEST BET FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD PRECIP STILL
MAY NOT OCCUR ALONG THE STRONGER WAVE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES MON THROUGH WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES
THIS AFTEROON...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS (TO AROUND 35KTS) EXPECTED AT
KCMX. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AT ALL THREE SITES TONIGHT...BUT
STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 25KTS AT KCMX. VFR CU/SC CIG IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT IWD/CMX WITH FEW-SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WITH
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY JUST SCT CU AT
SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOUTHWEST TO WEST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL
MAINTAIN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 25KTS AFTER THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-245>247-263.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB


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