Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 220753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

A decaying sfc trough sagging southward across Upper MI this
afternoon is creating enhanced convergence across the south half of
the CWA. A few radar echoes are surpassing 30dBz as low as 3kft, so
even though the sfc layer is very dry, a few sprinkles may reach the
ground through this evening.

Upper ridging building across the Upper MS Valley and sfc ridging
drifting eastward across Upper MI will bring clear skies with a few
passing high clouds and afternoon inland cumulus through Sunday.
H8/H9 temps a degree or two Celsius higher on Sunday will favor sfc
temps in the upper 70s to low 80 away from the immediate shores,
where widespread lake breeze development is expected.

The light winds will limit daytime boundary layer mixing to some
extent, but min RH values will still fall well into the 20s inland.
Some upper 10s cannot be ruled out across the interior east where
dry NE flow tonight ahead of the surface ridge leaves behind very
dry low-levels. Overall, with winds remaining light away from any
lake breeze boundary, Sunday will be another day of drying ahead of
the expected increased fire potential on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016


Primary concern is with critical fire weather conditions on Mon and
convection (possibly on the stronger side, but not severe) moving in
late Mon into Mon night.

Really focused in on temps, dew points and winds for Mon. Did not
make many changes to the going wind forecast as multi-model blend
matched up well. Have winds of 10-20kts gusting to 20-30kts
(strongest west, weakest east). Increased temps to better match up
with the bias correct Regional GEM, which has been verifying the
best with max temps over the last week, then increased those temps
another degree since official forecast bias has been on the order of
-3 degrees for the last week and models are struggling to capture
the max temps. Have max temps in the 70s east half, and in the 80-87
degree range west half. Models have also be really struggling with
dew points, but the bias corrected Regional GEM and the bias
corrected ECMWF MOS have been performing best, so put a lot of
weight into those. Min dew points are forecast to be lowest at
around 38-40% over the E and around 40-44% over the W. Resulting min
RH values are 20-30% over all areas away from immediate Lake
Michigan moderation, lowest at 20-25% over most of the W half. Will
continue the Fire Weather Watch and let the next shift or two make
the assumed headline upgrade.

Most precip will stay west through 00Z Tue, with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the west and becoming more scattered as
they head E. Eastern Upper MI will probably stay dry until around
sunrise Tuesday morning. Looks like most areas will see precip Mon
night into Tuesday morning as the front moves in, but no guarantees
of a lot of precip. Some storms could be stronger as up to 1,000
J/kg of CAPE may develop with moderate shear. Given models being too
moist lately, guessing they will continue to be until we get farther
along into green up or have significant precip. Therefore, CAPE
values from models are probably too high. No severe weather expected.

The front settles through the area on Tue, which when combined with
lake breeze boundaries, should see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Depending on buildup of sfc heating and CAPE Tue
afternoon, there could be some stronger storms over mainly south
central Upper MI. Have high temps up to around 80F over the interior
W on Tue.

POPs are in the forecast each day as several upper waves may move
through. Left consensus guidance in the forecast for the extended
given more limited predictability and focus in the shorter term.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 125 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

With dry hi pres dominating this fcst period, expect VFR conditions
at all the TAF sites. Light winds will become steady out of the SSW
this evng as the pres gradient begins to tighten on the wrn flank of
the departing sfc hi pres rdg. There may be some LLWS especially at
IWD in the early mrng hrs on Mon.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will keep winds under 15
knots through Sunday afternoon. Southerly winds of up to 25 knots
are then expected Sunday night through Monday night as a low
pressure trough approaches from the west. The trough will stall over
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday through Thursday, bringing winds
generally under 15 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MIZ001>015-084-085.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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