Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the wrn U.S. and
troughing in the east with a ridge across the central U.S. poking
into the upper Great Lakes this morning. The ridge builds into the
upper Great Lakes tonight and remains through Monday.

Looks quiet and very warm for this forecast period and did not make
too many changes to the going forecast overall. Kept in some chance
pops far west in the late afternoon Monday. Fire weather will
continue to be a concern for Monday with low relative humidities and
plenty of sunshine available with wind gusts up to 30 mph. This
would be enough to cause red flag conditions and will issue a red
flag warning for all of the U.P. and cancel the watch as conditions
are very high for wildfires.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016


Primary concern is with critical fire weather conditions on Mon and
convection (possibly on the stronger side, but not severe) moving in
late Mon into Mon night.

Really focused in on temps, dew points and winds for Mon. Did not
make many changes to the going wind forecast as multi-model blend
matched up well. Have winds of 10-20kts gusting to 20-30kts
(strongest west, weakest east). Increased temps to better match up
with the bias correct Regional GEM, which has been verifying the
best with max temps over the last week, then increased those temps
another degree since official forecast bias has been on the order of
-3 degrees for the last week and models are struggling to capture
the max temps. Have max temps in the 70s east half, and in the 80-87
degree range west half. Models have also be really struggling with
dew points, but the bias corrected Regional GEM and the bias
corrected ECMWF MOS have been performing best, so put a lot of
weight into those. Min dew points are forecast to be lowest at
around 38-40% over the E and around 40-44% over the W. Resulting min
RH values are 20-30% over all areas away from immediate Lake
Michigan moderation, lowest at 20-25% over most of the W half. Will
continue the Fire Weather Watch and let the next shift or two make
the assumed headline upgrade.

Most precip will stay west through 00Z Tue, with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the west and becoming more scattered as
they head E. Eastern Upper MI will probably stay dry until around
sunrise Tuesday morning. Looks like most areas will see precip Mon
night into Tuesday morning as the front moves in, but no guarantees
of a lot of precip. Some storms could be stronger as up to 1,000
J/kg of CAPE may develop with moderate shear. Given models being too
moist lately, guessing they will continue to be until we get farther
along into green up or have significant precip. Therefore, CAPE
values from models are probably too high. No severe weather expected.

The front settles through the area on Tue, which when combined with
lake breeze boundaries, should see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Depending on buildup of sfc heating and CAPE Tue
afternoon, there could be some stronger storms over mainly south
central Upper MI. Have high temps up to around 80F over the interior
W on Tue.

POPs are in the forecast each day as several upper waves may move
through. Left consensus guidance in the forecast for the extended
given more limited predictability and focus in the shorter term.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

With dry high pressure dominating this fcst period, expect VFR
conditions at all the TAF sites. Light winds will become steady out
of the SSW this evening as the pressure gradient begins to tighten
on the western flank of the departing surface high pressure ridge.
Expect LLWS at IWD in the early morning hours on Monday.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected tonight through
Monday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. The
trough will stall over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday through
Thursday, bringing winds generally under 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Red Flag Warning from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Monday for MIZ001>015-084-085.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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