Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
627 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

The short term will be quiet as zonal flow spreads eastward across
Canada. A couple of shortwaves will be tracking across s central
Canada to northern Ontario. With the track of the waves to the n of
here and with the main push of waa/isentropic ascent passing well to
the n, pcpn is of no concern. In fact, fcst soundings show a deep
dry column dominating today/tonight. So, a sunny day is expected
today and clear skies tonight. There is one exception, and that is
lingering lake effect clouds that are currently affecting parts of
the Keweenaw and especially the eastern fcst area. As winds back sw
this morning, expect these clouds to clear out, allowing for a sunny
aftn in those areas as well. Under sunny skies and waa, temps today
will rebound into the mid 20s to lower 30s, warmest over the nw part
of the fcst area at locations where sw winds downslope and coolest
downwind of the mostly ice covered bay of Green Bay. With some
locations over the interior w half currently aob -10F, this will be
quite a warm up from early morning conditions. This morning will
also be the last time subzero temps are recorded in Upper MI for
probably at least 2 weeks. While mins tonight will be mostly in the
teens, some locations along Lake Superior may not fall blo 20F, and
some locations over the south central where winds will be lightest
may dip into the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

The main weather impact during the extended will be early in the
extended forecast as an area of low pressure slides from the
Southern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the same time,
added support will be given from shortwave energy progged to link up
with the surface low. Model differences still exist; however, the
models are beginning to pull the system a bit farther south and east
of the area. This would mean that there would be lower QPF with the
system and that colder air will remain in place. The precipitation
will begin as snow across all of the U.P. Monday night and will
slowly transition to a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow
over the east half Tuesday as a bit warmer air is drawn in and fewer
ice crystals aloft are avaialble. Precipitation totals are not
expected to be overly impressive as most areas will only end up
seeing around a tenth to maybe as much as two-tenth far south
central. This would give a sleet/snow mix of up to an inch with well
less than a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation expected. This may
still cause some travel headaches late Monday night into Tuesday
morning with any ice accumulation that does occur, especially over
the south central and far eastern portions of the Upper Peninsula.
Again, the main thing is that the precipitation should be fairly
light, but it doesn`t take much freezing rain to make roads
slippery. Be aware of the road conditions if you are traveling late
Monday night and especially Tuesday over the east half of the U.P.

After that system moves through, fairly quiet and warmer weather is
expected through the end of the work week with little to no chance
of precipitation. This will be due, in large part, to a broad 500mb
ridge build across much of the central part of the U.S. At the
surface, much of the U.P will be influenced by the northern edge of
a broad surface ridge. As the ridge slides eastward through Friday,
winds will be southerly, helping to edge temperatures into the above
normal category into the upcoming weekend, probably reaching into
the upper 30s to around 40. The next area of low pressure is progged
to slide just west or over the western half of the U.P.
Saturday, which would lead to continued warming; however, the
chances for, mainly rain, would steadily increase for the first part
of the upcoming weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 626 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

With a dry air mass associated with high pres dominating thru this
fcst period, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. As the
high moves off to the east later today/tonight, increasing w to sw
winds above sfc based inversion will result in marginal LLWS at

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 425 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Tightening pres gradient between high pres to the s and low pres
tracking ese toward northern Ontario will lead to increasing sw
winds across Lake Superior today into this evening. Aided by max
pres falls passing n of the lake, expect winds to reach gale force
over portions of western and north central Lake Superior this aftn
and evening. Winds will then diminish to under 15kt Mon thru at
least Mon evening as a high pres ridge moves over the area. There
will be some increase in winds late Mon night/Tue morning, mainly
over eastern Lake Superior as low pres tracks ne toward Lower MI.
Winds will then be mostly 20kt or less thru the mid and late week
period as conditions become unseaonably warm over the Upper Lakes
with no significant weather features impacting the area.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Monday for

Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
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