Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 282354
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW
ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
INTO NRN ONTARIO WEST OF THUNDER BAY. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER SHRTWV
OVER IA BRINGING SHOWERS FROM NE IA THROUGH SW WI WAS SLOWLY LIFTING
TO THE ENE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN TO NEAR AUW.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES. RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN OVER WI TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SRN TIER ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-2 FROM IMT EASTWARD. SHRA/TSRA WITH THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV MAY BRUSH MAINLY THE KEWEENAW BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE NRN PORTION OF UPPER MI. FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE NORTH COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD
TSRA.

SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF THE WI SHRTWV OR POSSIBLY AIDED BY A
TRAILING SHRTWV DIVING INTO NRN WI. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE PCPN TO
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME CLEARING INTO THE WEST
HALF BY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70.
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST AND WITH SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
MI...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST SAT
NIGHT...BUT THINK VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOW IN THE LONG TERM AS A MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN AND SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO ERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVES TRY TO TOP THE RIDGE...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY ANYTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL ALREADY BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.
HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS 850MB TEMPS START OUT
IN THE MID TEENS C. 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
AROUND 20C...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING
AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WILL BE MVFR BRIEFLY FOR CLOUDS AT KSAW SAT MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 15KT. LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB


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