Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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729
FXUS63 KMQT 041918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER



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