Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 042317
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
617 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...

DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONE SHORTWAVE IS WORKING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO FAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. 12Z KINL RAOB SHOWED INCREASING H9-H8 MOISTURE
WITH SHARP LOW-LEVEL INVERISON BLO H85. THOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SCATTERED LGT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. AS THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING YET
ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NW ONTARIO DIPS DOWN OVER LK
SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACROSS. WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND BRIEF MOISTURE AND LIFT
UP TO H7 MAY SEE LGT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER WESTERN CWA SPREAD OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CWA THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING BY MIDNIGHT.
SKIES MAY TRY TO CLEAR AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR SCNTRL...SO COULD SEE
LOWS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOW TO MID TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

MAIN IMPACT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO SWING WINDS MORE NW BY LATER
THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NW
WIND SNOWBELTS AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -14C TO -16C. STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE FOR MOST OF NIGHT IS PEGGED FOR WESTERN CWA OVER COPPER
COUNTRY...ROUGHLY BTWN ONTONAGON AND CALUMET...BUT LK EFFECT WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI OVER NORTH AND EAST UPR
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY TO EAST OF MUNISING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING LATER THIS EVENING BUT
MOIST LAYER LEFT OVER TO H8/5KFT IS SQUARELY IN THE DGZ AND WINDS IN
THAT LAYER ARE NOT STRONG. SO...EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE FLUFFY WITH
ISOLD AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES IN FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WILL NOT DO ANY
LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES AS MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW INCHES OF
FLUFF SNOW AND SINCE BLSN WILL BE MINIMAL ISSUE. LATER ON FRI WINDS
BACK MORE WSW-SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT SMALL POPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT UNTIL WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD BE MID-LATE AFTN
OVER FAR EAST CWA. AWAY FM THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...MAY SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE. HIGHS ALL AREAS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ACTIVE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FCST WITH A SERIES
OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS WEEKEND. A STRONGER GROUP OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WL
DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A
GREATER CHC FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON
INTO EARLY WED. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN TREND COLDER NEXT WEEK UNDER THE DEEPENING TROF.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING.
WHILE MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE LACKING...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
MODEL OMEGA AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
MEASURABLE BUT LOW QPF FRI NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-12C WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW TO ACCOMPANY ITS ARRIVAL IN UPPER MI LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA AND ALSO
MOSTLY E OF KMQT AS WINDS SHIFT NNW SAT MORNING. MIGHT SEE 2-3
INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. LES WILL THEN DIMINISH
DURING SAT AFTERNOON UNDER FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ARRIVAL OF
LOW-LEVEL DRYING BENEATH THE INVERSION.

SUN INTO TUE...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP MORE SHARPLY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
CONSENSUS OF 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A SFC LOW PRES
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MAJORITY OF GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
HOW THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDS WITH SFC LOW. IF IT TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH
WITH LOW TRACK PER MAJORITY OF 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND MODELS HOLD
TRUE TO THIS TRACK THEN WE COULD END UP WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT TIMING/LOCATION WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN UNTIL MODELS
NARROW IN ON THE SFC LOW PRES/WIND FIELDS. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
SNOW WILL REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W MON
MORNING AS WINDS BACK NORTHERLY AND CAA BEGINS. SNOW WILL THEN
INCREASE EASTWARD ACROSS NCNTRL UPPER MI MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF IS NOW SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS IS HANGING ON TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUE NIGHT
AND THUS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY LES REGIME ACROSS THE
N WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS INTO TUE NIGHT. HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN HWO
AND ALSO REPRESENTED IN EHWO GRIDS. EVEN IF THE DEEP MOISTURE THINS
OUT...850MB TEMPS FALLING NEAR -20C BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED WILL
WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO TUE NIGHT
AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WED MORNING.

WED INTO THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL TAPER
OFF LES FROM W TO E ACROSS FCST AREA ON WED. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON
TIMING OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS SUGGEST
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY NW FLOW LES ON THU WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS WINDS BACKING SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. WL KEEP CONSENSUS CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS
CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE DETAILS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A WEAK UPPER DISURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL SITES INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...THE WINDS WILL TURN W-
NW WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY AT CMX/IWD.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING COULD
RESULT IN NW WINDS TO 30 KTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS ON FRI THEN
INCREASE TO W-SW TO 30 KTS FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. NW WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED ON SAT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS
BECOME SE TO 30 KTS ON SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FM SCNTRL CANADA. GALES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE EAST HALF SUN AND SUN NIGHT. STRONGER N WINDS
COULD THEN REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY NEXT MON INTO
TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA


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