Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 242110
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST PLACES EXCEPT
THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST HAVE TURNED OVER TO SNOW AS 850MB TEMPS
RAPIDLY DROP TO -12C OR LOWER BEHIND THE SFC LOW. OTHER THAN NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A LULL OF
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MOVING NE
INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY STILL
OVER THE IOWA AND SRN WI WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OWED TO THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS WI AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SYSTEM SNOW
TO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 2 IN
MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES TONIGHT. RAPID UPDATE NWP SUGGEST UP TO
0.50 INCH OF LIQUID TONIGHT /WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING UP TO
0.75 INCH/. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY FAST TO
THE NE AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE AT MOST 3 G/KM THIS
EVENING...AM EXPECTING QPF OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. WITH
SNOW RATIOS RISING TO 10-15:1 THIS EVENING...THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOCUSING
ON AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF US 2. AM CURRENTLY THINKING THAT SYSTEM
PCPN WILL DIMINISH OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCE TO THE
NORTH...SO AS OF NOW WILL LEAVE DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES OUT OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PLANNED. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXPECT BETTER LES BANDS TO DEVELOP IN THE N-NW
FLOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING AT IWD RIGHT NOW. CURRENT SNOW
RATIOS ARE FAIRLY LOW...GENERALLY 10-15:1 DUE TO THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION STILL FAIRLY HIGH. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BECOME HIGHER...CLOSER TO
20:1. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES AS
IS...WITH SIMILAR FORECAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING STORM
TOTAL OF 5-8 INCHES ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE...4-7 INCHES
KEWEENAW...4-9 INCHES N-CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND 4-7 INCHES EAST OF
MARQUETTE. BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

THE LES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN ALONG WITH
BACKING PBL WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING LES
TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW AND ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE TUE AFTN. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW BUT END THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS EAST DUE TO W-NW FLOW HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THERE
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL ADVY LES TOTALS ON WED INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE UPR LKS.
FORTUNATELY FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN TRAVEL ON THANKSGIVING...MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TREND TOWARD LESS PHASING BTWN A PAIR OF SHRTWVS THAT
WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SN AWAY FM LK SUP. TEMPS WL RUN
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMAL ON TUE NGT INTO FRI WITH AN UPR TROF
DEEPENING OVER ERN NAMERICA. AS THIS TROF GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW THIS WEEKEND...A MORE CHANGEABLE PATTERN WL DOMINATE WITH
WARMER AIR IN STORE FOR SAT.

TUE NGT...A WEAK SFC HI PRES UNDER SUBTLE SHRTWV RDGING/AREA OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE MOST OF THE NGT AND BRING DRY WX TO
MOST OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME PCPN WL BE OVER THE NW CWA
NEAR A STATIONARY FNT ORIENTED W-E OVER LK SUP. H85 TEMPS ANRD -13C
MAY SUPPORT A LK EFFECT COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY LATE WHEN SOME DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD TOWARD
THE CNDN/MN BORDER IS FCST TO ARRIVE. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E WHERE THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS SHOULD
LINGER THRU THE NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PWAT UNDER 0.25 INCH AND
MINIMIZE CLD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME HIER CLDS SPILLING INTO UPR MI
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHRWTV.

WED...SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW IS FCST TO MOVE INTO WRN LK SUP BY 00Z
THU...WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC INVADING UPR MI. BUT SINCE
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS PHASING BTWN THIS SHRTWV AND
ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SEWD IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
THAT WL ROB THE AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND LEAVE PWAT NO HIER THAN
ABOUT 0.25-0.30 INCH...ACCOMPANYING SN OVER THE CWA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LGT. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE SN WL BE IN THE N WIND SN
BELTS NEAR LK SUP AS THE H925 FLOW SHIFTS TO THE N COINCIDENT WITH
PASSING NRN SHRTWV AND ALLOWS FOR SOME LES AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND
-15C OVER THE NW BY 00Z WED. SN TOTALS IN THAT AREA MAY ALSO BE
BOOSTED A BIT BY RATHER DEEP DGZ BTWN ABOUT 4-9K FT MSL EVEN THOUGH
MORE SHARPER UVV IS NOT FCST WITHIN THAT LYR. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THE FLOW MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO THE SW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHRTWV TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SOME LK EFFECT SN OFF LK MI INTO THE
SE CWA IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C.

WED NGT...STEADY NNW WIND IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV IS FCST TO
ADVECT H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -20C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z THU. THERE
MAY BE SOME ADVY LVL LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS AS THERE WL BE A
PERIOD WHERE THE FAVORABLE CAA/CYC NNW FLOW IS COINCIDENT WITH
DEEPER MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHTER SN EVEN TO THE SCENTRAL. THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LATER AT NGT IS PROGGED TO SHARPLY LOWER INVRN BASE
TOWARD H85...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES
OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTEST WITH THIS
DIMINISHING TREND.

THANKSGIVING/THU NGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK STEADILY AND
TURN MORE ACYC ON THANKSGIVING WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD WI
LATE IN THE DAY UNDER HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV
RDG. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE FAVORED SN
BELTS E OF MARQUETTE...BUT LO INVRN BASE BLO H85 SHOWN ON THE FCST
SDNGS UNDER THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS WL LIMIT SN TOTALS.  AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE FLOW BACKS TO THE W-SW...LINGERING
LES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE MORE HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVERSPREAD THE AREA W-E.

FRI INTO SAT...AS THE UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA SHIFTS TO THE E...THE
FLOW OVER THE CONUS/SRN CANADA WL BECOME MORE ZONAL. DVLPG LLVL SW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES THAT WL BE FORCING
THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR PATTERN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS FCST TO BRING ABOUT SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR/PCPN
ON FRI TO THE NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO MN. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WARM AIR RETURN ON FRI MAY FALL TO THE SW IN WI. EXPECT
THE HIER POPS OVER THE ERN CWA WITH SW FLOW OF COLD AIR OFF LK MI
ALLOWING FOR SOME LES INTO THAT AREA ON FRI. AS A SHRTWV WITHIN THE
ZONAL FLOW SHIFTS EWD NEAR THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC LO PRES WL SHIFT
EWD AND JUST N OF LK SUP ON SAT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS H85
TEMPS RISING TO AOA 0C OVER AT LEAST THE S HALF OF THE CWA ON SAT...
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PCPN. GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED WARM LYR...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RA OVER
THE SCENTRAL WHERE THE WARM WEDGE H85 TEMPS ARE OVER 0C. THE MODELS
SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z CND THAT SHOW THE DEEPEST
SFC LO/FARTHER N TRACK ACTUALLY INDICATE UPR MI MIGHT SEE SOME DRY
SLOTTING AS THE H85 WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N OF THE CWA AND H85
TEMPS RISE AS HI AS 5-6C...SO POPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE S.

SUN/MON...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO SHIFT INTO QUEBEC SAT NGT/SUN...
ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SWING THRU UPR MI AND BRING A RETURN OF COLDER
AIR AND SOME LES FOR SUN. TRAILING HI PRES WL PASS TRHU THE CENTRAL
GREAT LKS ON SUN NGT...ENDING THIS LES. AS THE HI SHIFTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT A RETURN SW FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO DVLP ON MON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REDUCES VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE AT CMX/IWD. SAW STILL
MVFR...BUT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE THERE AS WELL WHEN THE
BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOP. IFR CONDITIONS WILL COTNINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR ON TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. ALL SITES WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUST TO
30+ KT THROUGH THIS EVENING CAUSING SOME BLSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAULT STE MARIE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. N-NW GALES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE WED
INTO WED NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR N-NE WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
     085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-
     005>007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ246>251-265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ242>245-263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD




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