Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 171757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.

AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.

TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.

SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.

SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.

SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.

MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.

WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
     265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
     263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC







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