Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 141950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
350 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2017

Main story in the short term is focused around a stationary front
across western and northern Lake Superior, and also dense smoke
aloft over the forecast area. No significant impacts are expected in
the short term.

GFS is the biggest (and almost only) proponent of bringing precip
into Upper MI through Fri. Definitely favor the majority of guidance
(and all of higher res models) in keeping precip confined to and
north of the front, so over far western and far northern Lake
Superior. There is a slight chance that some precip could fall over
the northern Keweenaw tonight, but that would be light if anything.
Thick smoke over the area today has kept temps a few degrees cooler
than forecast and has minimized CU development. Should continue to
see that cloud cover tonight and probably tomorrow given that smoke
stretches across all of the northern CONUS and southern Canada. This
should keep temps from falling quite as much tonight, so went with a
slightly warmer blend, but think thinner smoke tomorrow will allow
highs in the low to mid 80s central and west and in the 70s east.

Could see some fog develop over the central and east tonight as
notable plume of moisture (low clouds on satellite) over Lake
Michigan shifts northward.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2017

Minimal changes to the extended forecast from prior guidance. The
ridge parked over the eastern CONUS continues to dominate, but some
guidance is indicating heights trying to lower heading into the
second half of the weekend. This would suggest the western trough
may try to push a series of weak low pressure systems further east
and increase chances for precip, along with more clouds and slightly
cooler temps. Although confidence is low that this will materialize
given the persistent pattern.

Guidance then leans towards pushing a surface ridge east to the
Great Lakes region early next week, with a return to seasonal temps
and dry conditions through Tue. Unfortunately the upper level
pattern is leaning towards a quasi-zonal flow, which could speed the
push of the surface ridge to the east and setup a somewhat active
pattern towards the middle and later portions of next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2017

No changes from previous forecast discussion...

VFR conditions should prevail thru the fcst period at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. However, there is some concern that upslope
southerly winds tonight at KSAW could yield ocnl fog/stratus and
IFR/LIFR conditions, similar to last night. Also, there is a small
potential of shra/tsra tonight at KCMX, but at this point, potential
is too low to include a mention in fcst.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 350 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2017

NE winds will gust up to 25kts over western Lake Superior on Fri,
diminishing Fri night. West gusts of 25-30kts are possible on Sun.
Otherwise, winds will be near or below 20kts.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Beachler
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