Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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401
FXUS63 KMQT 082328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
628 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF DTW BY 12Z
TUE AND TO NE OF CLE BY 00Z WED.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH TUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WELL AND USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH WIND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO FALL BY 21Z TUE DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET IN THE WESTERN
CWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO -20C TO -22C BY 00Z WED AND ARE
AT -8C TO -16C BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T WOULD BE FROM 11C TO 19C BY 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKED AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND THERE IS IN BOTH THE 12Z CYPL AND 12Z KINL
SOUNDING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V
SOUNDING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALLING TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INVERTED-V LOOK AND COOLING
ALOFT WITH TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES UP
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EAST OF THERE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

TO START TUESDAY NIGHT THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL STILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NW CANADA DOWN THROUGH E ND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH N WINDS AT 900MB OF 25-
30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME THE 500MB TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE CWA...HELPING ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING N WIND LES. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -22C...WITH
A MORE MODERATE -15 TO -20C OVER MUCH OF THE E.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO FAR
W ONTARIO AND MN. EXPECT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 5-7KFT CWA
WIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY OVER THE W
HALF STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

LOOK FOR THE PREDOMINATE N WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF A MORE NW DIRECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAKING GOGEBIC OUT OF
THE LES. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING LES CWA WIDE WITH THE
NEARING RIDGE FROM THE W...A SINKING TROUGH FROM N ONTARIO WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH ALREADY OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SET UP
AS A LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NEW YORK ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE STRENGTHENING 1045MB HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
TO SINK ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN ON SATURDAY AND SETTLE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AND STILL N-NNW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR N CENTRAL. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF UPPER MI WILL FALL BELOW
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE S-SW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES BEYOND
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND THEN. WHILE BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MAIN 500MB LOW OFF THE E COAST
SUNDAY...THEY DO SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS SLIDING IN FROM THE N
PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO TUE AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THOSE SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. FOR
SAW...VFR/MVFR WX THIS EVNG WL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ON
TUE AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-265-
     266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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