000
FXUS63 KMQT 250720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W MN EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS NEARLY STEADY.

TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE 850MB
POCKET OF 4-5C AIR SLIDING FARTHER INTO THE THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT S FLOW AT THE SFC...THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
FAR W SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING MORE THAN A FEW MILES
INLAND FROM IWD THROUGH ONTONAGON AND RED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SFC
TEMPS TO RISE IN THE THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD COVER...AND THE POTENTIAL SHADING FROM THE
3-5KFT CEILINGS THAT SHOULD LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND UPPER MI. EXPECT BRIEF INCREASED
WINDS...TOPPING OUT 10-15KTS AS THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE PUSHES INTO N CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THE DRIEST AIR
LINGERS OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
25-30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.26 AND 0.33IN /40-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...20 KNOTS OR LESS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC