Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241854
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
254 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Surface ridge axis that extends from Ontario through eastern Lake
Superior into the eastern Great Lakes will only shift slowly
eastward tonight. Low level airmass is pretty dry and with several
hours of clear skies across the east tonight temperatures should
fall back into the 40s. Increasing clouds across the west should
keep temperatures much milder in the mid 50s.

Surface low over the northern plains will lift slowly northeastward
to the Manitoba/Ontario border on Sunday dragging an occluded front
eastward into the area. Deep moisture and convergence ahead of the
front should bring widespread shower and isolated thunder activity
to the U.P. during the day on Sunday. Rainfall totals should average
between a quarter and half inch before precipitation tapers off from
the west late in the day. Temperatures will be pretty seasonable in
the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Nam has a trough in the northern and central plains 12z Sun with a
shortwave ridge over the upper Great Lakes and ridging in the
western U.S. The trough moves east into the upper Great Lakes Sun
night into Mon and then moves into the lower Great Lakes Mon night.
Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence arrive on Sun
and last through Sun night with Mon having the wraparound part of
system affecting the area. Did not make too many changes to the
going forecast and have likely pops overspreading the cwa Sun into
Sun night and then chance pops on Mon with wraparound part of storm
coming through.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF are showing much better agreement at
96 hours with both having a closed 500 mb low east of Lake Superior
in Ontario 12z Tue and ridging into the Rockies and southern plains.
By 12z Wed, the trough is over the lower Great Lakes and the ridge
is into the Plains. The 500 mb ridge then builds into the upper
Great Lakes 12z Thu into Fri. Confidence is now a bit higher due to
better agreement between the GFS and ECMWF now. Temperatures look to
be above normal for this forecast period. Also looks a bit drier now
starting Wed afternoon through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Scattered to broken VFR clouds will continue today into tonight.
Next chance of rain arrives late tonight at IWD as low pressure
system and frontal boundary approach from the west. Conditions should
drop to MVFR at all the TAF sites on Sun as rain spreads over Upper
Michigan.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 253 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Tightening pressure gradient across the lake tonight as high pressure
moves toward Quebec and New England and a low pressure system lifts
across Manitoba to northern Ontario. Southeast winds may gust as
high as 30 kts Sun into Sun evening over north central and eastern
sections of Lk Superior. The low will move east of the region Mon
into Tue and a cold front will cross Lake Superior. With 850
Temperatures falling to 2 C and tight pressure gradient on back side
of surface low dropping southward over the eastern lake...expect
northwesterly gales to around 40 knots on Monday and Monday evening.
Northwest winds to 25 kts continue on Tue then winds diminish to 20
kts or less by Wed as high pressure crosses the Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...MZ


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