Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 222348
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

Unseasonably cool northwest flow this afternoon, with diurnally
driven cumulus clouds across the Upper Peninsula. Temps have slowly
warmed into the middle and upper 60s, with dry air trying to mix out
dewpoints into the lower 50s in spots. With the thermal differential
and minor instability, a few showers have popped up but nothing to
be concerned with for convection at this time. Expect as we approach
sunset clouds will steadily erode with just p-cloudy skies
overnight. In addition a weak lobe of vorticity will slide southeast
across the area and could keep a slight chance for showers through
the overnight hours. Temps will radiate into the 40s tonight, with
warmer temps closest to Lake Superior/Michigan and possibly falling
into the upper 30s across the west-central U.P.

High pressure will be building into the region from the west
Wednesday with winds turning northerly later in the day. Temps will
warm into the lower to middle 60s Wed with skies partly cloudy
throughout the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

Very quiet weather expected through much of the extended forecast.
The only issue expected will be the frost potential on Wednesday
night and again Thursday night into Friday morning.

At the surface, high pressure will build into the area and linger
through much of the extended forecast. This will keep mainly dry
condtions in place across the Upper Great Lakes region under light
winds. Aloft, much of the east half of the CONUS will be under a
general troughing pattern. While afternoon mixing will be very good,
the potential for any afternoon cu development will be marginal as
the airmass looks to be very dry throughout the thermal profile.
PWAT values actually look to be around 50 percent of normal for this
time of year, again, pointing toward the drier air moving into the
area. This very dry air in place along with light winds will lead to
near to slightly below normal temperatures through the extended. In
fact, overnight lows will likely drop to near 30 degrees over
portions of the inland west Wednesday night into Thursday morning
and again Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the coldest
model guidance is actually showing lows dropping into the mid and
upper 20s in some of the coldest locations of the inland west.
Definitely not out of the question with maximized radiational
cooling. These much cooler overnight lows will lead to patchy to
potentially widespread frost across the inland west areas of the
U.P. for both Wednesday night and again Thursday night.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

Gusty northwest winds will diminish late this evening at CMX.
Otherwise, VFR conditions this evening give way to MVFR cigs
overnight as secondary trough brings in resurgence of cool/moist air
to the region. May be a few light showers late tonight into Wed
morning at IWD and SAW behind the trough but no reduction to vsby
expected. After broken to overcast clouds to start the day on Wed,
the clouds will begin to decrease and scatter out late Wed morning
into Wed afternoon. &&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 503 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

A tight pres gradient between low pressure lifting northeast from
Lake Superior and high pressure building toward the area from the
northern plains will result in wnw winds to 30 knots this afternoon
into this evening and a few gale force gusts over the eastern Lake.
Winds will veer to the nnw tonight behind a trough with winds
remaining in the 20-30 knot range through Wednesday. The winds will
then diminish Wed night as high pressure builds into the area and
remain below 20 knots for the rest of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB



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