Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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021
FXUS63 KMQT 181920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LVL LOW ROTATING OVER
NRN MN WITH A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF LOW REACHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER MI. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SW WHICH HAS DISSIPATED THE
DENSE FOG OVER LAKE MI AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN UPPER MI. DRY
SLOT HAS LEFT UPPER MI GENERALLY PCPN FREE OVER THE EARLY MORNING
HRS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOCUS TODAY WILL ON COLD SURGE WHICH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE WEST MID-LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI AND AWAY
FROM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REACH IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (WITH A FEW 70S POSSIBLE
IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS). OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLIER...MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S/50F NEAR IRONWOOD TO LOWER 60S ALONG
A LINE FM MQT TO MENOMINEE. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SURGING IN A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
(FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD) WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AREAS. WITH THE COLD AIR AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST FIRST (ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS) AND THEN SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CAA ON BLUSTERY NW TO N WINDS WILL ALLOW 8H TEMPS
TO FALL TO -8 TO -10C OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI BY 12Z
TUE. 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5C OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT.
BEST FORCING OUT AHEAD ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MN/ONTARIO BORDER TONIGHT WILL STAY MAINLY NW OF UPPER MI KEEPING
MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT PCPN N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN UPPER
MI AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND N. WITH
COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AS NOTED BEFORE...THE -SHRA WILL MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PCPN OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A DUSTING TO LOCALLY A HALFINCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SFCS BY 12Z
TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA LARGELY BEING BETWEEN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BRUSHED BY A FEW
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL LEAD TO
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE (WITH PWAT VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25IN)...WHICH
GIVES VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HASN/T STARTED...WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
FROST (AND A HARD FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR WEST) ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND PERSONS WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS WOULD BE WISE TO PREPARE
FOR A SOLID FROST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY SHOWED A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY (50S) WHILE AREAS INLAND RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE 60.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY (WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS NORMAL) AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE HIGH WILL DEPART SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
INTO IOWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE CWA
TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MUCH OF THE FORCING (WARM FRONT
STALLS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN) AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO THE WRN TAF SITES WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AT IWD AND CMX UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CIGS NEAR OF JUST ABOVE THRESHOLD AT SAW UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLDER AIR AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN. THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS
AT KIWD AND KCMX OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING AT KSAW EARLY EVENING
WILL ALSO CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS NEAR
IFR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NNW WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS
INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

LOW PRES OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL VEER FM SW THIS
MORNING TO NNW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT AND TUE...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E TUE
AFTN/NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. WED THRU
FRI...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. LINGERING WARM MOIST AIR WILL ALLOW
FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE TODAY...POSSIBLE LOCALLY DENSE OVER
THE EAST HALF THIS MORNING. ALL FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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