Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 260802
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SCENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER THE
SRN CWA SUN INTO NEXT MON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
ARE ALSO VARIABLE RUN TO RUN...SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MAYBE UPPER
50S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...COOLEST TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MORE CLOUDS WHERE/IF PRECIP
DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS WEAK LOW SLIDES SE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PCPN WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FM W TO E AND RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AT KCMX AND KSAW. WITH SHALLOW MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING... RESULTING IN
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...BEGINNING FIRST
AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC



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