Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251939
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.S. THERE IS
ALSO A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THU.

PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST AS NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND TI REMAINS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ICE
COVER AS THIS HAS BEEN VARIABLE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS HELPING TO
BREAK IT UP IN A FEW PLACES AND CAUSE THIN SPOTS IN THE ICE COVER
AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS REASON AS THERE IS
ENOUGH HEAT COMING THROUGH TO STILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS IN A FEW
PLACES. THERE SEEMS TO BE TWO SPOTS OF FOCUS WITH ONE AROUND IWD AND
THE SECOND EAST OF THE KEWEENAW WHICH HITS ALGER COUNTY TO LUCE
COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME POPS THERE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ELECTED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES CAUSING THE
WIND CHILLS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH IN MOST PLACES
AND THE TEMPERATURE IS DRIVING THIS PRODUCT...NOT THE WIND AND WILL
STRESS THIS IN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND HAVE VALUES RANGE FROM -
20F TO -35F. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS THE COLDEST AIR
RETREATS INTO NE CANADA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE SW CONUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
WRLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID MS VALLEY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -25C...LES WILL CONTINUE OFF
OF ANY GAPS IN THE ICE COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
MARQUETTE AND NEAR IRONWOOD. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR HIGHS AND AGAIN DROP INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INLAND THU
NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM -2 TO -10 CLOSER TO THE LAKE. EVEN WITH
MINIMAL WINDS NEAR 5 MPH WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE -18 TO
-28 RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

FRI INTO SAT...WINDS BACKING TO SW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OFFSHORE. WEAK WAA AND LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS FRI
AND TO NEAR 20 SATURDAY.

SUN...THE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WILL MAINLY RESULT IN
VEERING WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LES POTENTIAL AS THE MORE
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...ONLY REACHING THE SRN LAKES.

MON-TUE...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH A LARGE SHIELD
OF PCPN MAY EMERGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE SRN LAKES.
ALTHOUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IF MODELS TREND
TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM HOLD UP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR
CMX FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER IS KEEPING IWD
TEMPORARILY IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THEY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR FOR THE PERIOD EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUILDING A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AND SHIFTING ICE
COVER PREVENTING LARGE AREAS OF OPEN WATER...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE WAVES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
     AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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