Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 270750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF





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