Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALLOW WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO KICK IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE KEEPING A NARROW
RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CONTINUED RIDGING WILL
HELP TO SLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERN WI OR FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WHILE THE EC IS FARTHER EAST. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASED
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FROM MAKES IT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY IF WE END
UP GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE PLACED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AS
IT SWINGS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN BUT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL 500MB PATTER. PINNING DOWN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY WAVES MOVING THROUGH WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST...THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA



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