Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261153
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO IS NOW MUCH WEAKER AND
TRACKING THRU NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS UPPER
MI DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. SFC DWPTS THAT
WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F ARE NOW DOWN IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE
50S AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. UPSTREAM...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS
NOTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MN...AND THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES IN NE MN. IN THE LAST FEW HRS...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
THINNING OUT...AND RECENTLY THE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER
MI. THESE CLOUDS ARE SITUATED IN THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WHICH HAS
850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 4-5C OVER FAR NRN MN.

TODAY...850MB TROF SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING COINCIDING WITH ARRIVAL OF THERMAL TROF...THERE
SHOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF SCT/BKN CU/STRATOCU FOR A TIME...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL BE A BIT COOLER
WHERE WINDS ARE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...
SHORTWAVE TROF NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS FCST TO SHIFT E...
REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN STREAKING E INTO WI AND EVEN INTO UPPER MI. INITIALLY...PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS APPEARS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE FAR NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE JET
TRANSLATING E OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...JET FORCING WILL BE S OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER FORCING IS
NOTED WITH SHORTWAVE...AND LOW-LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT TODAY. SO...IF
PCPN DOES MANAGE TO STREAK INTO THE AREA...THE LIGHT PCPN WOULD
LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THUS...NO MENTION OF
PCPN WAS INCLUDED IN FCST TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. OPTED FOR THE MIDDLE
GROUND OF AVBL GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
40S/LWR 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TO
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS A LITTLE POCKET OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE THAT WILL TRY TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DULUTH AT
12Z WEDNESDAY...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW THE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (INLAND AND TOWARDS WISCONSIN
BORDER) AFTER THE MID CLOUDS DEPART DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY SINCE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MODELS ARE
AVERAGING AROUND 6-7C AND KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET CHILLY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. TRENDED LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
SLIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA...BUT LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WHILE THAT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS WILL KEEP
POPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF INTO THE UPPER
LAKES...AND THIS WILL YIELD OCNL MVFR CIGS AT KIWD/KSAW FOR THE NEXT
2-3 HRS. THEREAFTER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO RAISE CLOUD
BASES...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY W WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AT KCMX TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...RESULTING FROM PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRES WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DROP
OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES DEPARTS THU...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT FRI/SAT EVEN WITH TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON






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