Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 130505
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
105 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY AROUND 00Z/14 WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER PENINUSLA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF WEDGE OF DRY AIR PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PARENT SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE U.P.
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM JAMES BAY 12Z/14 TO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z/15. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. AND REACH THE
QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BORDER BY 18Z/15. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...DUE LARGELY TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/INCREASED 1000-500MB RH/VORT MAX PRESSING THROUGH THE U.P.
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

ONCE THE BETTER FORCING EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. STILL KEPT
ONGOING CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL 500MB AND INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE EC/GEM KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE U.P. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING THE CWA BY 00Z/16. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EC/GEM LENDING MORE SUPPORT TO THESE
SOLUTIONS. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA PULLING 850MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 4 TO 5C. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE
60S ACROSS MANY AREAS...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 77 DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...VERY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE EC SLIDES THE HIGH
EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
SATURDAY..WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SINCE PCPN OCCURRED AT KSAW...IT`S
POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BECAUSE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH SHRA ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING...COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BRING -SHRA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE...BEHIND COLD FRONT...GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED WITH A WNW WIND.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






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